Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Political Naïveté

Babes in the woodsI’ve written here recently about the new Danish anti-Islamization movement and political party called SIAD. If you visit SIAD’s website, you’ll notice that they cite 620,000 as the number of Muslims in Denmark.

Last night Fjordman sent me the following message:

I got an email from Danish newspaper columnist and Islam critic Lars Hedegaard, President of the Danish Free Press Society. I respect him greatly. He has been one of the leading forces for many years behind making tiny Denmark into one of the leaders of the anti-Jihad resistance.

He has read the story about the political party “Stop the Islamization of Denmark,” SIAD. According to Mr. Hedegaard, he did a very thorough review of just how many Muslims were legal residents of Denmark in January 2004, and found the number of Muslims in the country to be less than 200,000, which is a lot less than the numbers mentioned by SIAD. I personally believe we should also be wary of inflating the number of Muslims, which CAIR is consciously doing in the United States.

Mr. Hedegaard also notes that SIAD are considered to be politically naïve by many of the more established Islam critics. For this reason, even though they will of course defend their right to hold meetings and speak their mind, many people will be reluctant to cooperate with them too closely.

I think Fjordman is right — anti-Islamic groups all across Europe are inflating the numbers of Muslims. I did a couple of posts about the numbers of Muslims in Europe, and Daniel Pipes has written on the topic, too. On this side of the Atlantic, CAIR inflates the number of Muslims in the USA order to create political leverage. In Europe, the numbers are exaggerated by anti-Islamization groups alarmed by the inroads that Islam has made into Europe.
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Using CAIR’s inflations as a guideline, I tried to guess how many Muslims there might really be in Europe. The figures I came up with were lower — much lower in certain cases — than some of the numbers being thrown around by various European counterjihad sites.

I managed to annoy some of our European readers — Danes, Swedes, and others. They claim the numbers in their countries are much higher. Of course, they have no authoritative statistical sources to back up their numbers — no one does. Various arguments supporting the higher estimates can be made, but in the end it’s just a gut feeling.

It’s very difficult to determine the real numbers, because Muslim children born to non-natives in the host country are listed as “Danes”, “Swedes”, etc., in most censuses, and tallying by religion is not permitted. France keeps no statistics whatsoever on these matters. This means that Europeans — who are already so accustomed to the quotidian lies and obfuscations issued by their own governments and the EU — have no faith in any official figures. As a result they create their own estimates, either low or high, depending on their political inclinations.

We do our cause a disservice if we put out information without reliable sources. If the information is later discredited, then all the issues we’re fighting for are also discredited. Out goes the baby with the bathwater.

What really counts is the ongoing dhimmification of our countries, as spearheaded by our craven and corrupt political leaders. From this point of view, it doesn’t matter whether there are three Muslims in Denmark or three million. What matters to the Danes is their right to live according to the rule of law and their own traditions. No matter how many Muslims there are in a country, none of the following should be allowed:

  • The censorship of speech in order to avoid giving religious offense to Muslims.
  • Inciting violence against unbelievers or apostates.
  • The separation of men and women in any public facilities.
  • The alteration of the menu in public institutions to accommodate Muslim dietary laws.
  • Instruction of schoolchildren in any language other than the official language of the country.
  • The forcible marriage of women to men they do not want to marry.
  • The complete covering of the face in any circumstances where law or administration needs to prohibit it.
  • The obstruction of law enforcement by rules against “profiling”.

These issues are clear, simple, and governed by common sense. They don’t depend on how many Muslims live in a country. They only require that countries strengthen their spines, support their traditional constitutions, and enforce the laws that already exist.

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What appeals to me about SIAD is their political naïveté; that is, their fresh and straightforward message. They’re law-abiding, non-violent, and non-Nazi in their orientation, which is good. Their mission aligns very closely with that of the 910 Group. They have set themselves a clear, reasonable, and humane goal, and they’re moving towards it with great optimism and enthusiasm.

Yes, they are politically naive. But that’s not surprising; they’re just starting out.

I’m a naïf myself. So are most of us in the Counterjihad. We have to be, because anybody who is politically savvy won’t touch these issues with a ten foot pole. If they do, the lockstep media will demonize them as “racists” and “Islamophobes”, and kill their political careers.

As a result, we’ve been effectively abandoned by our political leaders. We’re on our own, babes in the woods. The naïve will just have to carry the load themselves.

And we are Islamophobes — but with good reason. You’re bound to be an Islamophobe if you watch what’s happening in Beslan or Sydney, in Rinkeby or Clichy-Sous-Bois, in Leeds or Dearborn, in Thailand, Kashmir, Lebanon, Gaza, Nigeria, Sudan, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

Islamophobia is a rational response to current events. If you’re not an Islamophobe, you’re not paying attention.

If SIAD’s message resonates, it will help change the political culture and make real resistance to Islam possible in Denmark, and in other Western countries as well. People with political experience will then adopt parts of the Counterjihad’s program, and begin to enact it.

That’s why I gave SIAD a little free publicity. We have to start somewhere if the Counterjihad is ever going to gain any traction in the political sphere, and SIAD seems as good a place as any.


Yankee Doodle said...

I’m a naïf myself. So are most of us in the Counterjihad. We have to be, because anybody who is politically savvy won’t touch these issues with a ten foot pole. If they do, the lockstep media will demonize them as “racists” and “Islamophobes”, and kill their political careers.

I think all decent people are somewhat naive.

Our innocence gets taken away by exposure to evil, and no matter how much evil we are exposed to, there is always more out there that we haven't yet been exposed to, and thus more innocence for us to lose.

We just don't understand how evil thinks and works, and have to keep learning.

By the way: that's a good thing.

kepiblanc said...

Lars Hedegaard's estimate was based on counting Muslim names in the official register of same, which records Danish citizens only, not those waiting to gain citizenship - for example all 'refugees' and persons with a stay permit. By that method I reckon he's got less than 40% included.

Another, more scientific method estimates 620,000 Muslims in Denmark. I'll take the liberty to re-post my own estimate, based on simple logic :

Total Population 1950 : 4.2 M
Total Population 2006 : 5.7 M

Assumptions :

1. Danish women give birth to no more than 2.0 child, which means that if no immigration takes place, the population is declining. During this period life expectancy has grown somewhat, probably enough to outweigh the downward trend. Let's assume a constant "Danish" population 1950-2006.

2. Emigration out of Denmark to "peer" countries (Scandinavia, USA, UK, Oz & NZ) equals immigration from the same countries. (The 'net' immigration from USA is outweighs the 'net' emigration to Australia).

3. Immigration from EU countries is higher than emigration, but lots of Danes settle down permanently in Southern Europe, like Spain and France ('Tax emigration').

All in all, that leaves 1.5 M immigrants from 'third world' countries 1950-2006. Now, let's take two, different assumptions :

A. Most - but not much more than 60% - of those 1.5M are from civilized countries like China, Vietnam, India, South America etc... That leaves something like 600,000 Muslims.

B. Most - say 60% - of those 1.5M are Muslims. That means something like 900,000 Muslims.

Or, in percent : Muslims in Denmark : min 10.5% - max 15.8%.

If there is crazy logic here, please correct.....

Baron Bodissey said...


I remember! You said the same thing last time. I wish Lars Hedegaard would come over here and argue his case, using sources & assumptions. Then we could make an informed guess as to who is right.

Steen said...

"Lars Hedegaard's estimate was based on counting Muslim names in the official register of same, which records Danish citizens only, not those waiting to gain citizenship - for example all 'refugees' and persons with a stay permit. By that method I reckon he's got less than 40% included."

As far as I know, Hedegaard counted muslim names from a phone directory and the "Folkeregistret"

You dont have to have a citizenship to be listed there. I belive his estimate is as correct as you can get.

As we don´t list people after religious belief, no one knows the ecact number, but is is never the less counterproductive to be hysterical.

I agree about SIAD.

John Sobieski said...

I think the counterjihadists in Europe UNDERESTIMATE the number of Muslims. You go to some cities in France, and there are more Muslims everywhere you go it seems than nonMuslims. Have you been to Lyon? Or the coast of France?

I believe there are over 30 million illegals in America, not the 10 to 15 million many suggest. I have watched my city in just the last decade become overrun with illegal Mexicans. It's breathtaking.

Those I have spoken to in Europe feel the same way. If our governments do everything in their power to prevent an accurate counting of illegals and Muslims, we really only have our best guesses. When I walk into my local supermarket, I only see Mexicans with tons of babies. And I think to myself, why has my government forced me to pay taxes to pay for these illegals welfare, child education and free health care and automatic citizenship because they can quickly drop an anchorbaby at my expense and live off my taxes as parasites for the rest of my life? Is it any wonder that so many Americans are angry?

Darrin Hodges said...

It is important to have the facts on hand and freely distribute them, unlike our so-called political leaders.

To this end I have started an organisation in Australia - Anglo-Australian National Community Council. It's not a political entity, we believe that people have had a gut full of politicians and political parties, rather it's an organisation that will go out and educate the people on the dangers of Islam, multiculturalism and political correctness.

Our first foray into the public arena will be this month when we screen "Islam: What the west needs to know".

Exile said...

Maybe the numbers aren't really that important. The thing that is important, is to stop the Islamification of the west. The numbers will only be relevant if and when the shooting starts.

SIAD is prepared to take the political battle to the politicians. I don't know if that's naive.
I do know it's necessary.
And therefore, gentlemen, they have my support.

Profitsbeard said...

Better to over-estimate the strength of your enemy than under-.

If that's naive, it still wins wars.

Exile said...

Apropos SIAD: News.
On the Wing

Baron Bodissey said...

Fjordman just asked me to post a reply from Lars Hedegaard, who doesn't get into blog debates directly very often.


Lars Hedegaard explains:

Nothing except confusion and dismay is gained by using inflated numbers. The situation is bad enough as it is. My number for 2004 I also calculated the corresponding figure for 1998 is based on the first names of all males legally residing in the country regardless of legal status, including asylum seekers, leaving out only illegal residents who cannot be many in a tightly controlled country such as Denmark. I admit and did so when I published my findings in the summer of 2004 that I may not have detected all muslim first names. In addition my material does not include babies who have not yet been given a name. I therefore estimated that my figure of approximately 192,000 muslims as of 1 January 2004 might be +/- 5,000. But the assertion that I have somehow overlooked 400,000 people the equivalent of between 7 and 8 per cent of the country’s entire population is, with all due respect, absurd.

Gary Rosen said...

John Sobieski:

You may be right that the number of illegal aliens in the US is underestimated, but I suspect that the number of Muslims has been exaggerated by the MSM and outfits like CAIR. You can count on CAIR to grossly exaggeate the number of Muslims in order to maximize their political influence, and count on the MSM to swallow whole anything CAIR tells them.

I think CAIR is now claiming that there are 6-7 million Muslims in the US (it's important to them that the number of Muslims is greater than the number of Jews which is around 5-6 million). I would guess the number is no more than half that. If there actually were 6-7 million Muslims, CAIR would be claiming 10-15 million.

Two caveats: 1) This applies to US only, I won't speak for Europe. 2) This doesn't mean any less danger from American jihadists.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps the US should take careful watch on Denmark and see where they are going. If they are successful in stopping the Islamification of Denmark, then we should follow suit.

Unfortunately, I don't believe that will happen. Our leaders are far too weak to employ robust measures (mass deportations) or are too worried politically to do much of anything against radical Islam in America.

I also believe that our politicians in Washington are well aware of the dangerous threat we now face as a nation - I just think they're too scared to act on it, because they are worried more about their careers.

Asger Trier Engberg said...

With all due respect to Lars Hedegaard and Fjordman - it is almost impossible to count the exact amount of muslims i Denmark. And counting names in the phonebook or in the central register certainly does not comply with any scientific method I have heard about.

The numbers SIAD has is just as unclear as any other but they are based on the numbers from the central registry - and then combed through by a professional statistican - or whatever they are called.

But it does not matter, there is a threat and it has to be countered.

SIAD is trying to counter the Islamic fascists with the tools of democracy, freedom of speech, nonviolent demonstrations, and so on, because they belive in a free democracy. And that is good enough for me.

Anyway if Fjordman is interested in contributing to the discussion in SIAD he is more than welcome to send a mail to SIAD - any good ideas are more than welcome. Especially from such a resourceful person as Fjordman.

John Sobieski said...

Larry Auster at View From the Right is working on a declaration regarding the threat of Islam and the actions to be taken. I think that would be something SIAD would be interested in using as a base of a position and analysis paper.


X said...

Asger has the point here. THe precise number of muslims in Denmark or any other country is irrelevant. The problem is the presence of Islam itself. They are all, for want of a better word, carries of the Islam virus and any one of them can become virulent at any point. As long as Islam is present in an unreformed state, the danger is present.

Highest Infidelity said...

If drmiltown's comments refer to the Wahhabi radicals, then he has a point. We need to send the terrorists on their way to Allah. The decent Muslims will be some of the first to thank us!

When my daddy's ranch was infested with mice, we didn't have a pow-wow about how many we thought we had. We just went and got us some cats.

Mogens Schütte said...

As it was stated at the top of the page the resistance group Siad estimates the numbers of muslims in Denmark to be around 620,000. After apparently contacting mr. Lars Hedegaard who for unknown reason is considered by Baron Bodissey to be an expert on this matter mr. Bodissey accepts a counter-claim of a 'mere' 200,000 muslims in Denmark. This is not even remotely close to being true.

This number was reached in the early- to mid 90s and things have gotten much worse since. Is 620,000 the correct number? Maybe, maybe not but that we have surpassed 500,000 is a fact, albeit a sad one. What confuses people here are the cloudiness which sorrounds these figures since no actual counts based on religious backgrounds have been made. But knowing roughly the number of people from muslim countries that have arrived since 1965 as either guest workers or 'refugees', and knowing the given fertility rates of the individual national islamic groups you get an estimate that is close to being factual - when you take into account the muslims that have been given citizenships. That is why Lars Hedegaard's number is so radically different from that of Siad. Lars Hedegaard disregards the fact of the citizenships being given in the tens of thousands each year to muslims - and their children, and their children's children. Hence they leave the statistics and are from then on considered to be Danes and not, for example, somalis or turks, and thus not representing the muslim population. So the actual number of Danes is no longer accurate which can lead you to make two grave mistakes - like mr. Hedegaard has done. One, to assume that the statistics are reliable in the sense that muslims are not likely to obtain the majority in this century. And two, to think that the fertility rate of the Danish woman is not as low as it really is (1,3-1,6). The result of this error is that the truth about the number of muslims and the fact that they will reach the majority in Denmark in 3-4 decades is ignored or even disregarded as 'scare tactics' by resistance groups such as Siad. Luckily som people have done the proper background work to find out the real truth behind the ominously optimistic statistics regarding the future population of Denmark and they uncover that today the muslims have indeed surpassed the 500,000 mark and 620,000 is by no means unrealistic. Lars Hedegaard is not a demographics expert and even if he was there would be plenty of fictional official statistics out there to back his fairy tale figure of 200,000 up (Danish Statistics being the main misleading force in covering up the facts). But only the truth matters and it involves the issue of returning the muslims back to their countries.

Are they going to achieve the majority and when? The answer is: soon and that is why we have to act now and not 15 years from now. Please do not regard Lars Hedegaard as a 'leading fighter' in the anti-jihad cause because he will, at best, fight a war on words but is completely silent when it comes to dealing with the future presence of the muslims in Denmark. Peaceful muslims or blood thirsy muslims - if they take over the country through births it is completely irrelevant. Danes having a country to call their home, also in 60 years time, is all that matters.