Friday, November 10, 2006

How Many Muslims?

On Wednesday our Swedish correspondent LN reviewed Storm Over Europe, and the post prompted commenter Evan to ask this question:

RinkebyDoes the book try to rigorously calculate the ethnoreligious breakdown of Denmark or anyplace else in Europe? If so, I would like to learn what their estimates are. One hears people carelessly throwing figures around like “Sweden is already 20% Muslim” and so on. I know the CIA estimates that France is about 10% Muslim. And Mark Steyn claims, without any documentation, that among young French the percentage is vastly higher. But the whole issue is shrouded in politically correct obscurity.

I asked Steen of Snaphanen if he had any idea of what the answer might be. Here is his reply:
- - - - - - - - - -
No one knows the real figure. Until now we have not listed people by religious belief. In the book Tabita Wullf discusses the holes in the statistics.

However — it is estimated that Denmark has around 2-300,000 (made after a count of Muslim names).

For Sweden, estimates lie around 3-500,000. Norway, I don’t know.

But anyone can speculate, as no one knows. Therefore it is also a time-consuming matter to look into, as Fjordman seems to know.

The answer from her — too many, anyhow.

all the best — Steen

I’ve used Steen’s numbers and the latest population figures I could find for the two countries to calculate the percentages:

  Total Pop. Low   High  
Denmark 5,432,335 200,000 3.7% 300,000 5.5%
Sweden 9,001,774 300,000 3.3% 500,000 5.6%

I know these are going to cause a lot of argument — it’s clear that many Danes think these estimates are too low. Let’s hope that our commenters can point the way to some new sources of information.

19 comments:

jillosophy said...

I know that the estimates for illegals here in America is way, way WAY low. The reality is that there has GOT to be more than 20 million - perhaps more than 30.
This past year people from countries "other than Mexico" caught trespassing across our southern border was over 100,000 (posted on my blog last night jillosophy.blogspot.com with video)... so how many got in? The conservative estimate is the border patrol picks up approx. one out of five trespassers... do the math.

jillosophy said...

So, to continue, my point was that we are all probably underestimating. But one thing is for sure, they know how to make their presence known to their "hosts"... visit my blog jillosophy

Yorkshireminer said...

Let me fist congratulate Steen, his Blogg Uriaposten is the most popular political Blogg in Denmark. If it was in America it would have the equivalent of approximately 5,500,000 visits per year. Now to get down to business Sir Henry Morgan has just done some statistical analysis on sex crimes in different London boroughs with different ethnic mixes. There definitely does seem to be a correlation between the percentage of Muslims in the population and the number of sex crimes committed, more muslims more sex crimes, unfortunately the rise is not linear but seem to be a step function, this of cause makes it almost impossible to extrapolate backwards, but it can be used to give a good indication of the percentage of muslims in a population. Whatever the numbers are for Denmark, one is too many, when muslims account for 76% of all rapes that are committed there. Here is Sir Henrys Blogg please check it out.

http://gandalf-reconquista.blogspot.com/

Evan said...

First, I am humbled that you started a thread just for me. :)

Second, if the estimates for Sweden and Denmark above are correct, that suggests that Muslims in those countries are about the same percentage of the population as Asians in the United States. Asian-Americans are neither prone to violence nor do they agitate for politically correct "respect" for their cultural autonomy. So the impact of a particular percentage of Muslims in Sweden or Denmark could be much greater then the impact of the same percentage of Asians in the United States.

Correcting for the age distribution of the indigenous and immigrant populations may make the numbers even worse, admittedly. Still, all in all, it's a relatively small number at this point, isn't it? Mark Steyn's pessimism about parts of Europe been gone already seems unwarranted.

France of course is different, as we've seen in the last year. If assimilation is improbable and insubstantial enough, immigration is big enough, and fertility gaps are also big enough, they may reach a tipping point very soon there.

Vol-in-Law said...

Evan:
"Mark Steyn's pessimism about parts of Europe been gone already seems unwarranted"

Yes, although Steyn's point is more that:

1. Demographic transformation is inevitable given continuing immigration, non-Muslim emigration, and differential birth rates - ie it's not gone already but inevitablt will be gone eventually

2. It's more about who's prepared to fight than raw numbers - he thinks one 18-year-old (Muslim) male is worth more than five (non-Muslim) sixty-year-olds when it comes to controlling the streets.

I think Steyn's "America Alone" hypothesis is over-pessimistic - it's possible but I think the chances of a total Islamist victory in Europe within 100 years are well under 50%. On the other hand, widespread strife and possibly the Islamist takeover of some nations does seem very likely. The small post-Protestant nations like Sweden and the Netherlands are probably the most vulnerable.

Original Denmarkian in US said...

The interesting aspect of percentages is not so much the present proportion of muslims in the population today, but the percentage of muslims in the younger generations, and the percentage of new-born mohametans versus original Danes is much higher. About a year ago I read in a Dansih newspaper that over 20% of children in the combined greater copenhagen area was muslim. Maybe, possibly, probably.
But whatever the newspapers say, I would rather trust my lying eyes. In any Western European city, one sees many more veiled women with many more children than originals. They are the future. And they will vote Left.Our own version of Bosnia awaits.

Evan said...

Vol-in-law,

To support your pessimistic interpretation, we have already seen several possible examples in recent years of demographics driving history. Mr. Steyn himself notes that Québec would probably now be independent, the independence partisans having won the 1991 independence referendum, were it not for shriveled Francophone fertility. Much of what has gone on in the Balkans in the last two decades is arguably fertility-driven, as is the shriveled political power of Christians and the expanded power of Shiites in Lebanon. (I have no hard numbers, just what I can glean from reading the papers.)

Still, with the exception of France, much of the Eurabia commentary seems to me at this point to be premature; the numbers just do not support that kind of pessimism. Immigration, for example, can be handled if not necessarily eliminated as a problem by reforming asylum laws and getting serious about policing the entry alleys in the Mediterranean. (I think Denmark has already changed their asylum laws, with noticeably beneficial effects.) I'm not saying there's no reason for concern, just that there is plenty of time still.

But only hard numbers allow us to know, and I guess that was the point of my original post.

Mikael said...

Baron:

Your estimates seems to be in the general consensus. The rule of thumb here in Denmark is that there's about 250.000 muslims, but no one really knows for sure as the national statistics office (Danmarks Statistik is not allowed to log people on their religion. ( Kind of makes sense to me - I for one would be floating in limbo in the statistics, probably listed as "others" or "don't know")

Yorkshireminer:

Just to clarify, Uriasposten is not edited by Steen, but by Kim Møller. They are both great blogs and I recomend anyone able to read Danish to frequent them both.

Yorkshireminer said...

Dear Mikael,
I stand corrected, it is Kim Møller, I must read my correspondence with Steen a little more carefully. I don't think it can be coincidence though that the two bloggs leading the Danish blogg league table Uriaposten in first place and Snaphanen in second come from Aarhus and Copenhagen respectively where there has been the most problems with the religion of peace. I also don't think that it is a coincidence that the two the two most prominent mullahs who were instrumental in starting the cartoon controversy, Labile laban and Shaykh Raed Hlayhel come from Copenhagen and Aarhus respectively. Luckily Shaykh Raed Hlayhel is leaving for GOOD and blaming the Danes, about par for the course. It is a pity that Laban doesn't follow his example. By the way I couldn't agree with you more they are great reads

kepiblanc said...

The true number of Muslims in Denmark is taboo, so Here is my estimate on Muslims in Denmark :

Total Population 1950 : 4.2 M
Total Population 2006 : 5.7 M

Assumptions :

1. Danish women give birth to no more than 2.0 child, which means that if no immigration takes place, the population is declining. During this period life expectancy has grown somewhat, probably enough to outweigh the downward trend. Let's assume a constant "Danish" population 1950-2006.

2. Emigration out of Denmark to "peer" countries (Scandinavia, USA, UK, Oz & NZ) equals immigration from the same countries. (The 'net' immigration from USA is outweighs the 'net' emigration to Australia).

3. Immigration from EU countries is higher than emigration, but lots of Danes settle down permanently in Southern Europe, like Spain and France ('Tax emigration').

All in all, that leaves 1.5 M immigrants from 'third world' countries 1950-2006. Now, let's take two, different assumptions :

A. Most - but not much more than 60% - of those 1.5M are from civilized countries like China, Vietnam, India, South America etc... That leaves something like 600,000 Muslims.

B. Most - say 60% - of those 1.5M are Muslims. That means something like 900,000 Muslims.

Or, in percent : Muslims in Denmark : min 10.5% - max 15.8%.
=======================================

If there is crazy logic here, please correct.....

Papa Ray said...

I haven't read Steyn's latest books, I have read some of his essays.

If he actually believes " one 18 y/o Muslim is worth more than five sixty-year-olds, he better qualify that, as in, he is not talking about Americans.

Especially where I live. I can guarantee that in a gunfight, myself and any of my buds and others I know, could out shoot any ten of them put together.

In fact we practice that.

The "gun club" (we don't have dues or meetings, except by computer, telephone or on the range) were we shoot is about half and half, with 50 y/o being the dividing point.

We shoot because we like to, because we hunt or used to and because we know that we may have to protect our families.

And we are damn good at it, and I'm not talking about static target practice. We have (admittedly southern engineered) moving targets, popups and urban tactics areas.

And we are one of the smallest groups around Texas, and there are thousands of shooting groups, clubs and associations in Texas.

They are also all over the S.W. and South of this Republic, and in other parts as well.

Steyn needs to get to know a little more about America, this ol' redneck thinks.

I also think the Military needs to fly some of those over 60 y/o europeans over here for some shootin lessons.

That might be the quickest answer to their coming problems.

Papa Ray

kepiblanc said...

Papa Ray, I really don't think it's necessary to fly old Europeans over. But thanks anyway.

Most native Europeans > 50 have military training. Conscripted armies, remember ?. And gazillions of shooting clubs.
Those Muslims are excellent at firing Kalashnikovs into the empty air, seething, screaming and ululating. But they can't hit a barn from two yards away, much less organize a trip to the john no matter how many times we tried to explain or even dance it for them.

It's not the Muslims we need to fight. They fight themselves mostly. It's our own useful idiots.

Vasarahammer said...

"It's not the Muslims we need to fight. They fight themselves mostly. It's our own useful idiots."

This sounds easier than it really is. These useful idiots all but control the academic world, dictate the agenda in the media and have a strong influence in party politics through leftist and green parties.

Besides, through globalization the big business has largely lost interest in local politics. This makes it a difficult task to promote conservative values. If we also include the passivity of the people in general, the task seems nearly impossible.

For me the Danish Cartoons were the last straw. There is, however, a huge number of people who won't wake up unless the shit really hits the fan.

David S. said...

Here is some good information on the real numbers for danish immigration:

http://www.lilliput-information.com/uscan.html

I think I have to agree with kepiblanc, from what I've seen (statistically, etc., not in person). The numbers are up there.

Steen said...

Original Denmarkian :

"but the percentage of muslims in the younger generations, and the percentage of new-born mohametans versus original Danes is much higher."

Excatly - in many areas, not considerer immigrant-areas, the percentage is above 20 - even in smaller propvins cities.

In greater Copenhagen it´s often about 45 % !!

That is the challenge, or whatever one should call it.

Steen said...

ps : not muslims, but immigrants. !!! which is not the same.

ScottSA said...

Kepi said:
"Those Muslims are excellent at firing Kalashnikovs into the empty air, seething, screaming and ululating. But they can't hit a barn from two yards away, much less organize a trip to the john no matter how many times we tried to explain or even dance it for them."

That's partly a Muslim thing (the Brits never did have much faith in the fighting ability of the Muslim sepoy; preferring the Sikhs by a longshot), and partly an ak thing: Aks never could hit the broad side of a barn; they are made for spraying crap all over the place but rarely at the desired target. They are great for suppression or assault, but no good for hitting things.

LA.Bueche said...

There's a certain fatalism that accompanies any talk of immigration and demographics in Europe, (and to a lesser extent, the US). It's worth noting that it's entirely within the realm of existing power of all of these nation states to completely eliminate any immigration, at any time. I don't know how likely this is, (especially in Europe with the incredibly PC atmosphere), but it's worth noting that we have the power to enforce our borders and regulate, or suspend immigration, and this isn't illegal, immoral, or racist. And no one has to answer to anyone outside the legislative bodies of their own country.

But I guess that's where transnational bodies like the UN and EU start throwing sand in the gears... Still, we could do it, and people need to at least realize it's an option that's on the table. Nobody owes it to anyone, it's just a matter of a percieved self-interest on the part of the host country - nothing more.

Joern said...

The number of muslims estimated by looking at and counting the muslims names at Denmark's
Statistics is totally unqualified:

We showed that two years ago in a Danish file that we will not waste time to translate.

What Sweden concerns I would at the moment go to:
28 February 2005 and Christopher Caldwell and reach more than 22 p.c., and then compare this the suggestion of STEEN's about 4 p.c.

[I have made an account, but that does not matter to most mainstream-
readers. I reached about 22 p.c. by quite other another method]

The weakest should go to the easy and pedagogical transformation square showing "how immigrants are transformed to Danes by a letter".

Its in Danish but that certainly does not matter, its a very illustrating drawing.

“Sweden has suddenly become as heavily populated by minorities as any country in Europe. Of 9 million Swedes, roughly 1,080,000 are foreign-born. There are between 800,000 and 900,000 children of immigrants, between 60,000 and 100,000 illegal immigrants, and 40,000 more asylum-seekers awaiting clearance (about 22,2 pct. ultimo 2004) according to by Christopher Caldwell, who is a senior editor at The Weekly Standard…”


Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?
(Bertold Brecht)


Joern, Danmark.wordpress.com