Friday, January 25, 2008

The Rate of Immigration into the EU is Increasing

Below is a very sobering story from today’s ANSAmed about the projected rate of immigration into Europe from “the South” over the next decade.

There are several things to bear in mind when reading this:

1. This forecast is based on information from EuroMed, i.e. the official arm of the European Commission charged with establishing what has become known as Eurabia. One can thus assume that the predictions have been massaged to the best of EuroMed’s abilities, and that the real situation must be even worse.
2. The more educated immigrants are going overseas, to the USA, Australia, etc. The poor, ignorant, and less employable “southerners” are moving to Europe.
3. The estimates posted yesterday at GalliaWatch (thanks LN): “Six out of ten persons from foreign countries of working age are idle. The deficit in public funds attributable to this population reaches 48 billion euros, or 80% of the total deficit recorded in 2004. Regarding their effect on the GNP, they represent 93 billion in added value and they consume 126 billion.”

And now the article from ANSAmed:

Migration Flows From The South To Double In 10 Years, Report

Brussels, January 25 — The immigration from southern Mediterranean countries is growing and in the next ten years it is destined to double: from Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon, Palestinian Territories, Tunisia and Turkey, between 20 million and 30 million people will migrate, with the authorisation of their countries of origin which consider the exodus abroad an investment, as well as a way to reduce unemployment. This is the warning launched by the EuroMediterranean Centre for Research on Immigration, Carim, financed by the European Commission, which in its latest report focuses on the migratory movements of the southern Mediterranean coast. It is not easy to measure the flow of emigrants, because the data from the countries of origin and from the hosting countries are often very different. In general, the hosting countries do not take into account the temporary immigrants and the illegal ones, who are instead registered by their consulates abroad in order to have a minimum of protection. According to the data gathered in 2007 by the southern Mediterranean countries, there are between 12 and 15 million first generation emigrants coming from the Arab countries, equally divided between Europe and Gulf countries and Libya. Only 10% of the emigrants from Arab countries go up to Northern America and Australia and in general they are those who have at least a university degree, unlike those who move to Europe, who have in average a very low education level. This is due to the different migration policies on the two coasts of the Atlantic Ocean: America tries to attract qualified workers, while Europe tries to limit the flows.
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The country from where most people emigrate is Morocco, which in 2005 had more then 3 million Moroccan citizens registered at the Moroccan consulates abroad. Egypt, Algeria and Lebanon follow, all of them countries which registered a rapid increase in departures in the past ten years. According to the report, it is easy to forecast that the migratory phenomenon will increase in the next few years, considering that the demand for labour in the Gulf countries and Europe, which needs workers to keep the number of its active population at the same level, remains unchanged. Carim also explains that the attitude of the governments of the southern Mediterranean countries towards the migratory phenomenon has not changed during the years: it keeps being considered an investment, just like exports, to be encouraged for the benefit of the state budget. The emigrants’ remittances are in fact one of the main sources of income for many southern countries. But because, according to estimates, remittances are profitable only in the first years when the emigrants are settling down, in order to have a constant income it is needed to ensure an equally constant flow of emigrants. Because of this, countries like Morocco encourage the exodus, despite the fact that, as Carim explains, European governments have been progressively closing the doors to foreign workers. In the picture taken by Carim, Turkey, which has 3 million emigrants, does not fit in and, according to the estimates of the European study, is going to become a country for which emigration will be just a memory. (ANSAmed).


Hat tip: insubria.

5 comments:

Afonso Henriques said...

Can I request you to cover ur the issue on the Palestinian/Egyptian border, Baron?

Can I ask you to say something in the line of:

The UK with 60 million people recieves more than two million people anually, half of which are non Europeans. They say their culture get rich.

Egypt with 80 million people can not get half million Palestinians when they do not differ ethnically or culturally from each other, and no one criticizes Egypt.

songdongnigh said...

There are similar reports about a group coming to the US from “the South“.

Painlord2k said...

I think these reports are difficult to believe.
Tunisia is under replacement fertility (2 less children/woman), Algeria and Morocco are around replacement fertility (2.2-2.4) like Turkey. Iran is under replacement. The only places where they have higher fertility are Egypt, KAS, Yemen, Pakistan. But the rates are falling fast, sometimes very fast.
The same is true for Mexico (lower fertility).

This imply that emigration from the first group will depopulate the places. Then, if these countries develop economically, the flux will be reduced or will stop. Untiul the sixties the italians emigrate around in big numbers. Then the emigration stopped because the economic development and the immigration started. If Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia stop to produce emigrantes, they will start to absorb them from other places to compensate the lack of manpower.

I suppose the reports could be based over assumptions not proved. Or they taken the trend and believed they will continue unchanged in the future. But the data don't show this trend.

Lugundum said...

Painlord2k, experience teaches us that official statistics on sensitive topics are quite often umm "inaccurate".

Your observation of decreasing natality rate in Maghreb/Muslim countries is correct and also mirrors development in Latin America. Unfortunately this doesn't lead to immigration reduction both to Europe and USA because the motivation for immigration is predominantly economical. Please note that Poland with natality rate at around 1,3 birth per woman is responsible for major part of intra-European immigration into the UK and other western EU countries.

So unfortunately we cannot expect that decreasing natality in Maghreb will lead to decreased immigration.

Painlord2k said...

I'm sure they are inaccurate. What I wonder is if they are inaccurate on a side (hiding the trend of immigration to not stir up people reactions) or in the other (believing in a future multicultural society).

Decreasing in natality under or near the replacement level imply that their population will deplete if a substantial migration happen.
Also, Poland had rates around 2.5-3 children/woman from the 1960 to 1980 and population gone from 30 to 37 millions. The Poland population reached a max of 39 millions before 2000 and now it is 38 millions. Giving the current numbers, their population will continue to shrink for a few decades. Remember that emigrants are, usually, younger. So they will reproduce themselves out of their original country, so the original country will produce a lower excess of population.
What fuel emigration is what fuel lower birth rates (poverty).
Then, if the original population have lower birthrates emigration could continue, but at reduced rates or they will depopulate the place. And if they depopulate the original country, emigration will stop.

The other side is economic growth and stability. When the people earn enough money they have a reduced propensity to emigrate (that is a great personal risk). I don't see this big emigration from the KSA (for example) or from other Gulf states.

The economics in Europe is not very good, and will not improve very fast; the climate for Muslim migrants is not improving either. So the pros for migration are reducing and the cons are increasing.

My assessment is that we will suffer for the current Muslims population already in Europe, but the future migration will be a much smaller problem.

This, if the politicians will not do something really stupid like opening borders and giving citizenship to anyone and his brothers.