Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Of Two Minds

Turkey is primed to bring the hammer down on Israel. According to Hürriyet:

A long-term diplomatic war between Turkey and Israel, once solid allies in an unstable region, seems unavoidable in the wake of Monday’s deadly raid on a Turkish civilian ship carrying aid to Palestinians.

Turkey’s recalling of its ambassador and canceling of three military drills are the most concrete signs thus far of the longer and much larger-scale diplomatic row indicated by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s speech Tuesday, coupled with Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s address to the U.N. Security Council and other diplomatic activities.

Rather than aim at the entire nation of Israel, the Turks have their sights set on bringing down the current government:

But as Turkey stays hard on Israel’s heels, Erdogan’s statements show that Turkey will only target the current Israeli coalition government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu and Avigdor Liebermann, in retaliation for the attack, which ended with as many as 19 dead.

This government has become the main source of trouble in the region, Erdogan indicated in his speech, reflecting the prime and foreign ministers’ previous decisions to not hold any high-level meetings with the current Israeli leadership. With reciprocal accusations from both sides since the famous Davos spat making it impossible to reduce tension, the only possibility for reconciliation between Ankara and Tel Aviv seems to be a change of administration in Israel.

Erdogan made it clear that Turkey has no problem with either the Israeli people or the Israeli state, calling on the country’s citizens to stand up against the Netanyahu-Lieberman government, which he said hurts the interests of the Israeli people.

This is a shrewd move. If Labour or Kadima were to run the show, something approaching an Oslo mindset could be expected to return to the Israeli government, making it more pliable in the face of a new onslaught of Islamic demands.

Turkey recognizes that it needs the help of the USA in order to achieve success, and with Comrade Obama at the helm, it might just get it:
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Full isolation of this government by the international community, backed by strong internal pressure, would surely start a process of removing the current Israeli leadership from power. This, of course, cannot be achieved solely by Turkey. Strong international determination in the international community is required, and Turkey will therefore try to gain the backing of the United Nations, NATO and other respectable international organizations. But the support of the United States is key.

However, The Turkish state seems to be of two minds about the state of Israel: it does not expect the current unpleasantness to interfere with its acquisition of six more Heron drones from the Little Satan.

Same day, same newspaper:

Israeli Aircraft to be Delivered on Time, Turkish Minister Says

The Turkish defense minister said Tuesday that the current crisis with Israel would not pose any problems for the delivery of four unmanned aerial vehicles known as “Herons.”

“We expect the remaining Herons to be delivered in June or July,” Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gönül told reporters in Parliament.

In January, Turkish officials said Israel would send four Herons to Turkey in March. The remaining six Herons are set to arrive in Turkey by the end of 2010, according to Turkish officials.

Turkey awarded the aircraft-building contract in 2005, ordering 10 drones from Israeli manufacturers Israel Aerospace Industries, or IAI, and Elbit.

The Heron UAV System is an operational fourth-generation, long-endurance, medium-altitude system based on leading-edge technology with new fully automatic take-off and landing features and can provide deep-penetration, wide-area and real-time intelligence either by day or at night. The Heron can climb to an altitude of nearly 10,000 meters, has a range of 350 kilometers and can fly continuously for at least 24 hours. It can carry out strategic reconnaissance and surveillance on six targets at once.

I suppose business is business, and Israel’s aerospace industry presumably needs the cash. But doesn’t the Heron constitute “sensitive” technology? Would these planes be a danger to Israel if the current conflict escalates to point of open hostilities? How likely is it that some of the drones will be transferred to third parties?

I admit to being a neophyte in these matters, but it’s difficult to see how going through with this sale would be in Israel’s best interests.


Hat tip: C. Cantoni.

11 comments:

Juniper in the Desert said...

I cannot see how selling the drones "helps" Israel, unless they have done some clever sabotage.

This is a great PJTV interview with Sam Cohen, father of the neutron bomb, who is very old and sick but whose mind is razor sharp. He says Israel must nuke Iran tomorrow as he reckons Iran already has nukes.

http://www.pjtv.com/?cmd=mpg&mpid=56&load=3647

Anonymous said...

Or the only possibility for reconciliation between Ankara and Tel Aviv seems to be a change of administration in Turkey?

Anonymous said...

This is the problem with partisanship. No doubt Obama sucks whether through perfidy or muddleheadedness. But his outlook is not very different from Bush. Bush emphatically defended Islam as a religion of peace, tried to bring "democracy" to the Middle East, tried to force Israel into further land concessions for nothing, and provided Pakistan with weapons and lots of money which it just uses against India while it plays its two-monty cards, nabbing a key jihadist just when the pressure is getting harder.

Anonymous said...

Also, this certainly seems like an excuse the now completely emboldened Islamic government in Turkey was looking for to start trouble with Israel after its successful dismantling of Laicist secularism at home, and defeating the military brass who were secular.

In Hoc Signo Vinces† said...

In hoc signo vinces


Bibi, I go with the Sam Cohen's legal right to convey a property!

costin said...

David vs The Goliaths. One skinny nerd surrounded by an angry mob of iliterate barbarians. This is so much like reality

Tim Johnston said...

I can't see Turkey going to war. And I hope their army doesn't leave their territory- we all need them there to prevent radicals taking power (if they haven't already).

Any conflict between the two would be naval, and Turkey has the upper hand. This was truly a shrewd move by Turkey to flash her Islamic credentials. She will come out of this quite well.

ANTI-ISLAMIST said...

EURABIA, HERE WE COME!
I woke up early this morning and the whole scenario was clear to me. What we are witnessing in the context of the Flotilla of Doom is nothing but a small but essential part of the ongoing, creeping islamization of Europe. I am certainly not a political analyst but knowing about the demiltarization and the radicalization in direction of Mohammad of the power elite in Turkey, Turkey's concealed subversive activities through Milli Görüs etc, having seen Sweden's useful prize idiots of fame: the islamolog Mattias Gardell with better half Edda Manga; Mehmet Kaplan, Saman Ali, Dror Feiler, Amil Sarsour, Kimberly Soto Aguayo and with Swedish background: Henning Mankell, Viktoria Strand, Ulf Carmesund, Henry Ascher and others making their appearances, having heard all the 'institutions' beating the big drum: EU, NATO etc, it stands out as pretty clear: with no Israel - or to begin with, with a weakened and humiliated Israel, the future Kaliphate will more troubleless swallow up Europe. I also allow myself to finding the Israel conduct unforgivingly stupid. Why not send out one or more major marine units, telling the Flotilla of Doom that calling at any port in Gaza is prohibited; eigher call an Israel or Egyptian harbour or disappeare. If not, the flotilla will be shot at and one or more ships made unmaneuverable. What now happened reminded of the Swedish Dialogue Police marching out. Never forget Einstein's assertion about human stupidity!

Anonymous said...

“We expect the remaining Herons to be delivered in June or July,” Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gönül told reporters in Parliament.

The world is going mad.

David vs The Goliaths
Right at the end of that video, a reporter asks one of the muslim demonstrators about Israel's right to be in the Holy Land based on Bible history. The response is "I don't know about that"

If a young muslim man in the US is ignorant of biblical history. then he must believe that the creation of Israel in 1948 was the first time the Jews lived in that area. Can it be true that this is what young muslims are taught? If so, it does explain a lot of the anger, I guess.
Though how this could happen in the US beats me.

Jedilson Bonfim said...

I suppose business is business, and Israel’s aerospace industry presumably needs the cash. But doesn’t the Heron constitute “sensitive” technology? Would these planes be a danger to Israel if the current conflict escalates to point of open hostilities? How likely is it that some of the drones will be transferred to third parties?

I admit to being a neophyte in these matters, but it’s difficult to see how going through with this sale would be in Israel’s best interests.


I sort of recall reading about, in an article on the Falklands War, how the French shared with the Britons under Lady Thatcher's leadership info on how to make weapons they had sold to Argentina less effective.

I think Israel is extremely likely, if not 100% likely, to have such an ace up her sleeve. After all, the IDF and the Mossad aren't known for being clueless or failure-prone as Homeland Security under Buraq Hussein and Janet Napolitano, or the Injustice Department under Eric Holder. On the contrary, they usually manage to do their business very well, unless ineffective leaders such as Ehud Olmert get in their way.

Blog Master said...

Islam is certainly not a religion of peace, but neither should be consider Israel a Western State. They are all violent lunatics, let them at each other.