Sunday, August 26, 2007

Population Predictions for Sweden

In response to my recent post on demographics, I just received this note from a Swedish reader:

Your population statistics is quite interesting. May I mention a hidden factor: Abortions.

In Sweden, 2004, for 1,000 live births, there were 341 abortions. One fourth of all little children begun, were aborted (Statistical Yearbook 2006, table 96). A godless country, where men and women have no real hope…

The Net Reproduction Rate is another figure. If NRR is 1.0, population will remain stable (immigration/emigration excluded).

NRR for Sweden went below 1.0 in 1968 (sic), and has remained below since then, with the exception of 1990-1991-1992. Minima at 1983 (0.769) and 2000 (0.718). (‘The Pill’ [the one and only??] was introduced in 1964).

Still, with this quite insufficient reproduction rate, our beloved rulers tell us that total population will increase, from 9.1 million now, to 9.2 in 2010, 9.4 in 2015, 9.7 in 2020, 10.0 in 2030, and 10.5 in 2050. (Statistical Yearbook 2006, table 85.) So we know what plans they have for immigration.

I use to buy The World Almanac and Book of Facts. In the 2007 issue they have a table on p 846, “Current Population and Projections for All Countries”. They are, eh, more optimistic for Sweden: in 2025, only 9.3 million, and in 2050 only 9.1 million.

(For the U.S. they say 350 million in 2025, 420 million in 2050…)


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1 comments:

Stephen Renico said...

I hope our population doesn't reach 450 million in the US.

Sure, we were built upon immigration, but when do we have enough people here? Do we really want half a billion? A billion?

Something has to change at some point.