Tuesday, April 14, 2009

A Taliban Ascendancy in Swat

Vlad Tepes has combined two Sky News reports to make this fascinating video about current conditions in Pakistan’s Swat Valley under its new Taliban rulers:



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9 comments:

Charlemagne said...

If the Taliban do in fact take over Pakistan I suspect there will be a major war with India shortly afterward.

Dymphna said...

I agree. India, like China, has a huge cohort of single males who can be drafted for service if necessary.

This group is available because of the Indian culture's preference for male children and the common practice of aborting female fetuses or practicing female infanticide. For the latter, there are special ceremonies to cleanse the room where the child dies.

This causes untold suffering; the very poor "rent" their wives to single men who can never afford to marry.

You would think a population with fewer women would value them, but it doesn't work that way. Once married off, women are of no value to their family of origin who must depend on their male children to support them in old age.

I do wonder if Pakistan will go nuclear quickly if the Taliban is able to wrest control? Like the Israelis, the Indian govt has an excellent intelligence system within Pakistan.

This could be a cataclysm -- how long, maybe two years?

Zenster said...

The parallels between the Palestinians and Pakistanis are rather instructive.

In both cases, previous goverenments (i.e., Fatah and Musharref) were seen as being so corrupt that even brutal fundamentalist regimes (i.e., Hamas and Taliban), were regarded as acceptable alternatives.

Whenever this sort of "frying pan to fire" political transition takes place, it should be regarded as a sign of one thing only:

A FAILED STATEIn both cases, a self-avowed terrorist government was put in place and that should be the starter's pistol for an immediate dismantling of whatever region is involved.

In the case of the Palestinians, a complete and total failure should have been declared with the immediate deportation of all Gazans to Egypt or Lebanon. (The West Bank should also have experienced this as well, with a forced exodus to Lebanon, Syria or Jordan.)

In the case of Pakistan, it should be divided along the Indus river with half given to Afghanistan and the other portion to India. A possible lower third area could be reserved for an independent Balochi state should Iran fragment.

Pakistan's nuclear arsenal should be confiscated and defused as well.

In this age of WMDs, a sane world can no longer tolerate the existence of governments predicated upon terrorism, much less sharia law.

Consider how much conflict and global instability would be eliminated were just these two flashpoint regions abruptly decorticated. Given just another decade, either one could become the first site of Islamic nuclear terrorism. That one possibility alone should provide all the reasons necessary.

PatriotUSA said...

In this age of WMDs, a sane world can no longer tolerate the existence of governments predicated upon terrorism, much less sharia law.

Consider how much conflict and global instability would be eliminated were just these two flashpoint regions abruptly decorticated. Given just another decade, either one could become the first site of Islamic nuclear terrorism. That one possibility alone should provide all the reasons necessary.

I do not think we have a decade left, to be honest with this. The capitulation to the taliban in the
Swat region does not bode well for
pakistan, India or any of the surrounding countries. Many western coutries gave the paks that silent wink and nod of a blessing to OK this caving in to terrorism and violence, no matter what they may have said.

Failed states is what we have here.
As noted by zenster the parallels between gazastan and pakistan are real and cannot be ignored, or swayed by massive aid and stupidity from the west. The swat region is just the first of many areas that will fall into the taliban's bloody hands. India will not be idle through all of this. The west needs to remove the blinders and see what is down the road in the short and long term.

spackle said...

I just pray that there is a deal in place for the U.S. to evacuate said nukes in case of an impending takeover. I dont think most people realize how serious the Taliban problem is in Pakistan.

Zenster said...

PatriotUSA: I do not think we have a decade left, to be honest with this.

I agree with you completely. The 10 year span was used only to prevent being perceived as an alarmist, which is something my writings tend to inspire in people. The world has a few years at best. I would use the Iranian nuclear weapons development schedule as a baseline.

As noted by zenster the parallels between gazastan and pakistan are real and cannot be ignored, or swayed by massive aid and stupidity from the west.

Another superb point that I omitted with respect to the foreign aid angle. Look at all the billions of dollars flushed down the Palestinian toilet. Most key of all is how no amount of monetary assistance can alter the genocidal mindset of fundamentalist Muslims. If anything it only serves to reinforce the perception of Western dhimmis meekly paying the jizyah due all devout Muslims. This only cements the exact opposite attitude and perpetuates an endless cycle of violence like we currently see in the Israeli - Palestinian crisis.

Moreover, Muslims do not want peace. Therefore, all funds will consistently be diverted away from fence-mending and into Islamic war coffers. A close examination of the Israeli - Palestinian crisis will show that peace is the last thing that Muslims want.

As an example, any lasting peace with Israel, especially one including recognition of the Israeli nation, would constitute an admission of defeat. That would equate to one of the most abject humiliations imaginable in a culture where humiliation is worse than death.

The same applies to Pakistan in that the Taliban will never abandon jihad against the West as that would compromise their piety. You may as well ask them to eat a meal of bratwurst and beer with their left hands.

spackle: I just pray that there is a deal in place for the U.S. to evacuate said nukes in case of an impending takeover.

I doubt that there is, was or will be any such thing. Otherwise Musharref probably would have made a sweetheart deal with America and accepted the several billion dollars that I'm sure we offered him in exchange for his keys to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal just before swiftly departing office for a pleasant all-expenses-paid Swiss chateau.

This is not to say that America hasn't used its superior satellite imagery to pinpoint exactly where all nuclear weapons are stored or form detailed contingency plans to raid and confiscate said arms.

At the very least, you can bet your bottom dollar that we have a bevy of cruise missiles pre-programmed with the coordinates of each storage site's blast doors in order to collapse all access tunnels into the arsenals.

I dont think most people realize how serious the Taliban problem is in Pakistan.

Your understatement is akin to describing the ocean as "rather damp".

spackle said...

Zenster-

"Your understatement is akin to describing the ocean as "rather damp"."

Yup.

babs said...

Democracy in Pakistan has failed. I wonder if asked honestly how much money we need to pump into this 7th century society to make it work?
The last I heard, over 3 years ago, we were paying families in cooking oil to allow their daughters to go to school...
Enough already. The U.S. can't fix it, the EU doesn't really give a damn. As I have said so many times before, I am terribly sorry for the women but we just can't fix it.
I advocate pulling out of the region and letting the Pakistani's and the Indians solve their own problems. Their nuking each other would be a logical outcome of the disagreement they have held for over 50 years. Guess who would win?

Sylvia said...

with the taliban in ascendancy in the Swat area...i fear the lives of women are going to be a real hell...Robert Spencer has pointed out that the word for woman is not even a pronoun but a direct object