Friday, May 29, 2009

Geert Wilders Breaks Out

Geert Wilders is breaking out of the blue-collar ghetto.

Support for the Freedom Party is no longer confined to ignorant bigoted working-class voters. Even fairly well-educated people are now saying that they will vote for Wilders in the next election. In other words, people who should know better.

That’s the not-so-buried subtext of the following MSM article, taken from Radio Netherlands:

Wilders’ party on the brink of acceptance?

“I’m going to vote for Geert Wilders.”

Geert WildersBe careful where you say those words. Geert Wilders has had more media coverage than any other Dutch politician in the past two years. His Freedom Party could be the largest party in the country, at least according to some recent opinion polls. Nevertheless supporting Geert Wilders is not universally accepted.


With elections to the European parliament coming up next week, it is the first chance for the Freedom Party to capitalize on its recent increases in the polls. Is Geert Wilders on the brink of becoming socially acceptable?

Gaining ground

The core of Wilders support comes from working class voters who feel left out of the political system. But his popularity has spread beyond this core group of supporters ever since the United Kingdom barred him from entering the country in February, and the recent decision to prosecute him here in the Netherlands for hate speech.

Even a well-known sports commentator said he would vote for the Freedom Party, and polls have shown increased support for Wilders among those higher up the education scale. Political Scientist Andre Krouwel is not impressed with Wilders’ new emphasis on freedom of expression.

“I think a lot of people see through that. A lot of people see that he is hypocritical when he says, I should be able to enter the UK when I want to, I should be able to travel freely, but then he says, people can’t enter the Netherlands. And he argues that he should be able to say anything, but at the same time you can’t read the Qur’an and you can’t say anything about Islam.”

Freedom of expression

But hypocritical or not, the issue of freedom of expression appeals to many people with a higher education. Sociologist Dick Pels says Wilders has a point.

“Wilders of course successfully claims that he’s a victim of the narrow definition of freedom of speech in the Netherlands. And he’s right in that, I support this notion that freedom of speech is too narrowly drawn in the Dutch constitution. I would never vote for Wilders but there are a number of people who just on this issue are thinking maybe he is the most visible representative of this idea that freedom of speech should be defended.”

“I would never vote for Wilders”.

No, of course he wouldn’t. No one in elite Dutch society would admit doing so, not if he wanted to keep his state-funded job. But the interesting thing is that this guy is admitting that there might be some people, real people, people who aren’t slack-jawed Neanderthals, who are planning to vote for the PVV.

The article continues:
- - - - - - - - -
More acceptable

And that has helped Wilders become somewhat more acceptable. But Andre Krouwel says asking whether Wilders himself will ever become socially acceptable is the wrong question.

“What is more important is not what Wilders does, he doesn’t matter. He will never be important enough, he will never be in government, or if he is, the party will collapse. What is important is what the two other major right wing parties, what they do with him. If they start copying his agenda, then everything changes, because then he is actually taking the other two parties with him to the right, and to a level where they would limit the rights of a certain group of people, namely Moroccans and Muslims.”

This is Wilders acting as a catalyst, getting extreme ideas accepted in mainstream political debate. However far Wilders gets in the future, he’s already succeeded in shifting the contours of the debate.

This article is a sign that the Dutch MSM is whistling past the graveyard.

“He will never be important enough, he will never be in government, or if he is, the party will collapse.”

How does this guy know that?

What happens if the PVV is by far the largest party in parliament after the next election — which is not at all implausible?

Can the existing power structure in the Netherlands rig a constitutionally legal way to nullify the election or suspend the PVV?

Or are they counting on Mr. Wilders getting the Pim Fortuyn treatment?


Hat tip: TB.

10 comments:

Homophobic Horse said...

“He will never be important enough, he will never be in government"

Because they will either shoot him, or jail him. Where upon he will be killed by violent Muslims in jail. Then the Dutch will have a big riot. The riot will be put down by the police. And then the Dutch will know te ancient anguish of dhimmitude.

erdebe said...

They cant count on the Fortuyn treatment because i think they are right in fearing massive civil unrest. Dont forget that after Fortuyns murder, a small band of ordinaire, unorganized citizens almost spontaniously stormed parlement. And things i dont think things have cooled off since then. Another murder is way to risky by now.

Another possibility is giving him the LPF treatment. That is asking him to join government and embrace some of his policies. In the meantime they will try to destabilize the PVV and embarras the ministers with information from his own department (a kind of civil servant resistance).
And when the time is ripe, the end the government on grounds of PVV instability and write new elections.

I dont think this will work though. The LPF were a bunch of no name no hope amateurs without Fortuyn. Wilders himself and the people with him now, allready have a great deal of experience in (dirty) politics.

It is however easy to nullify the election. And it isnt even rigging. Its institutionalized.
This is because we have a coalition governent. This calls for several partys to strike somekind of deal on policy.

This is the moment they are able to legally, nullify the election. They decide which government will be formed and what policys they will pursue. And these have rarely anything to do with all the election talk or the result of the election. A well known example is the 1977 election in which the Pvda came out the biggest party, but was left out of government anyway.

The other partys have simply to refuse to join a government with Wilders and form a majority government themselves.

The only problem is, that this has to be done credibly. This is a problem because if PVV becomes the biggest party, they will have the first go at trying to form a coalition government. To be credible the other partys will have to enter negotiations and bust them somewhere along the line on some credible point. Now because of this, it is feared that it will take execptionally long to form a government.

Now ive got some thoughts on that as well but this post is getting way too long allready, so this will have to do.

Mikael said...

It's the exact same discussion we had/have in Denmark about The Danish Peoples Party. The government here is also a coalition of two "right wing" (not really) parties that need the votes from the DPP. It leaves a lot of the "elite" with a bad taste in the mouth, especially among the Conservatives, but it's the only option besides being in opposion to a red coalitoion. Never the less it has worked out fine through three general elections since 2001.

The same will happen in Holland. The estabishment will hold their noses an make out a deal with PVV.

erdebe said...

@Mikael

That is an interesting option. Howcome the DPP isnt in government after these 3 succesfull terms?
Did their electoral growth stop after they made these deals or did something else happen?

In a way the PVV position is strong. But is still would be possible to get a "government of unity", meaning a government with all the tradional (polical correct) partys.

Now if this happens and Wilders makes it credible that it isnt his fault (which, given the informal çordon sanitaire" is allready in place, should not be hard to do), will fuell furher electoral gain. And if this happens, it would be outright impossible to form a government without PVV.

I think it is advisable that PVV goes down this road. It would basically ban PVV from government (but ofcouese not influence) for the next 4 years, but probably give PVV a position of great strenght and able to "dictate" terms later on. And only then, i think we can get some major changes, or at least get some under way!

Mikael said...

Howcome the DPP isnt in government after these 3 succesfull terms?Because they have much more influence not being in government. They don't need to make all dull everyday-compromises, but yank the other parties chain whenever they want. They do it from time to time, but mostly on small stuff, just remind the governing parties who is supplying the crucial votes in the house.

PVV would be wise to do same IMHO.

laller said...

Mikael

Personally I think you're overrating the influence and success of the DPP. Their growth more or less stopped after they became the "guarantor" of the government. Personally I think they would have had more seats today, had they not supported the government.
The success of the DPP is that they continue growing, eventhough they've supported legislation, reforms etc. that probably aren't all that popular with their voters(and potential voters).

erdebe said...

@mikael

But do they infuence government on crucial points? Did they manage to clamp down immigration, slow islamization, defend freedom of speech, and so on?

If they do, they are doing a great job and i would like Wilders to the same thing. If they however, only jank the chain on minor issues, i would like Wilders to go for an landslide victory and start dicating terms to get some real change underway.

@laller

So the DPP is still growing despite the fact they support (unpopular) government policies.

Interesting because that would mean, that it would be possible for PVV to start influencing government after the next election and STILL have the opportunity to have a landslide victory later on and dictate terms.

For me this would then be the best option because im not sure the Netherlands can survive another 4 years of total dhimmitude!

Im quite charmed by the DPP option but the influence must be on major points and not on minor stuff!

laller said...

Erdebe

In 2001, when the current government won, the DPP went from 13 to 22(12% of the votes) seats in parliament. In 2007 they won 25 seats(13.8% of the votes). So they've continued growing, though not with the speed they initially had and the latest poll shows them winning only 13.5% of the votes.
The problem imho. is that many/most DPP voters are former socialists(social-democrats), and the DPP are supporting a (by Danish standards) libertarian-conservative government, and the DPP are only truly influential on immigration- and elder-policy. I'd wager that that causes a conflict of interests in their (possible) voters. they want socialist policies on most issues, but they also want tough immigration-policies. As long as immigration/immigrants is their issue, they'll vote DPP. But if immigration/immigrants isn't their key issue, they'll vote for another party.
Personally I think the DPP should have considered waiting one more term, before supporting any government, as I'm sure they would have been bigger, and thus could have gained even more influence. That's just my opinion though, and ofcourse such a decision wouldn't have been without risk.

Anyway, I'm almost certain the government won't win the next election. That means the DPP will get the opportunity to grow quickly once more(I do believe more than 14% of the population are possible DPP voters), because then they won't have to support (unpopular) policies.

Yorkshireminer said...

If Wilders party gets the highest no of votes in the next election and so the largest no of parliamentary seat. He will be asked by the Queen through the formatuar to form a government, he will then have to go talk with the other parties and start negotiating a common policy, which they can all subscribe too. He will certainly be supported by T.O.N. (Trots op Nederland proud of Nederland) Rita van Donk will not be able to resist the lure of power he will certainly have to have one of the other right wing parties if he is to form a majority that will mean he will have to have the VVD or the CDA with him to get a majority in the Dutch Parliament. If they fail to agree then the next largest party in line will have a try. What ever happens in the next elections, there is going to be months of horse dealing in closed rooms, exactly as it was after the last election. If he doesn't end up as Prime Minister his larger number of parliamentary seats will give a hell of a lot elbow room at present if an election was taken now he would have 32 seat instead of 9 and if he gains a few more seats then he could virtually make it impossible to form a government as it would need so many parties to form a Government. The thought of having the party for the Animals in the Government is ridiculous and would make the government look ridiculous. What ever happens after the next election Geert's position should be so much stronger, and if he is not Prime Minister, which to me is very unlikely, all he has to do is wait until the next election. As for having him assassinated forget it

AlbKrist said...

Everybody should openly support him now, or it will be too late! Like it was for Albania!