Sunday, August 06, 2006

Reversing the Demographic Tide

According to legend, the sycophantic courtiers of Canute, the 11th-century Danish king of England, told their king that in his might he could command even the heavens and the earth. To demonstrate to them the limits of temporal power, the king had his throne carried to the seashore and there ordered the tide to turn back.

Canute’s descendants in modern Denmark may have better luck in reversing a different kind of tide. Danish reader and commenter Kepiblanc has translated an article from yesterday’s Jyllands-Posten for Gates of Vienna. His comments:

Maybe there is hope — after all…

If this trend holds I think the key to the whole problem lies with the Muslim women. How long will they tolerate oppression, violence and neglect?

Living in a modern, secular society will hopefully give them second thoughts.

And here is the Jyllands-Posten article itself:

The proportion of immigrants rapidly declining

Immigrants in DenmarkA new projection reveals a dramatic — long term — reduced proportion of immigrants and their offspring in Denmark. Two years ago the projection talked about 15.3% from less-developed countries in the year 2080. Strict legislation and dramatic decline in birth-rates now reduce that proportion to 8%.

In 1980 an immigrant woman gave birth to an average of 4.0 children. That number fell to 3.5 in 2000. But during successive years the number has fallen significantly and last year it reached 2.4 children per woman. That trend can be viewed as a consequence of the tightened immigration policy, especially concerning family reunions.

Those women arriving in Denmark from less-developed countries — who typically have many children — are now older than they used to be and fewer of them immigrate. According to the scientists behind the Danish projection those reduced rates of childbirth will have drastic consequences for the population in the long run.

The previous projection from 2004 predicted that immigrants and their offspring from less-developed countries like Turkey, Somalia, Lebanon and Iraq would amount to 15.3% of the Danish population by the year 2080. In reality that number now gets cut in half, namely 8%, in a new projection from 2006, conducted by the independent institute “Dream” — part of the Ministry of Finance, which conducted the 2004 projection as well.

“Very surprising”

The leader of the team at the “Dream” institute, Lars Haagen Pedersen: “It was very surprising, that the decline in birth-rates among immigrants from less-developed countries is of that magnitude. It cannot go unnoticed that the stricter conditions for family reunions with the 24-year condition plays a significant role. [A special Danish law that only allows for family-reunion if the applicant is 24 years old or older. — translator]. We predict that in the long run the immigrants’ birth-rate will reach the same level as that of Danish women. It must be emphasized, though, that the predictions are uncertain due to this new development”.

The demographic slide of Europe is not irreversible, provided the governments of the countries involved muster the political will to take the necessary action. And, as usual, Denmark is leading the way.


Exile said...

Kepiblanc - you've made my day!

Yorkshireminer said...

I think this might not be everything that it seems. Since the new law raised to age of brides and bridegrooms, to 24 many it seems they have been importing them into Sweden and marrying them there, and then settling in Malmo. Being citizens of the Common market they can get there social payment transferred. It is as simple as that to get round the rules. More live births in Sweden less it Denmark. Just wait until they return to Denmark which they can do as soon as the spouse if 24. A little off thread what bitter did you like best when you live in Yorkshire Sam Smiths John Smiths or Tennants?

ZionistYoungster said...

The demographic challenge is a demonstration of how Leftism is opening the gates for the enemy to destroy the West.

Under Leftist environmentalism, the planet is in a crisis because of too high human birthrates. Um, OK (though, as with global warming, you might want to do a little investigation on that). The solution? Lower the birthrates. Have less kids. Aw-right.

But... there's just a little, um, inconvenient truth here: for the family planning plan to work, all humans of the world must follow it. The Muslims don't. So the result of Leftist environmentalism is, the earth is neither less populous (as per their hypothesis) and the West is being hammered by the demographic assault of Islam. At the end of this, if shariah rule is instituted, it seems reasonable to assume that environmentalistic family-planning laws won't be a part of it, thereby leading to the very planetary crisis the Leftists had been so anxious to avert!

The Left--stuck on short-sighted, stuck on thoughtless.

Baron Bodissey said...

Yorkshireminer -- Of your choices, John Smiths was my preference. But Theakston's was always what I wanted, if I could get it. In those days I had to drive to Ripon (or farther) to find it.

I was was in the West Riding, lower Nidderdale. Where are you?

pacific_waters said...

8& too much.

pacific_waters said...

well apparently the code doesn't translate per cent sigsn, 8 percent too much.

heroyalwhyness said...

Interestingly, reports like this one tend to give the perception of hope . . . but the report can only be as good as the documentation on which it is based.

Here in the US, we have an enormous problem with legally 'undocumented' illegals using false ID's and such to collect benefits. I imagine this type of documentation problem is not limited to the states.

Look around . . .see for yourself.

Old Peculier said...

But Theakston's was always what I wanted

Quite right too.

kepiblanc said...

Come to think about it : I just translated the article from Jyllands-Posten but didn't go behind the numbers myself. It seems that the "DREAM Institute" actually dreamed those up : they estimate the actual number of "immigrants from lesser developed countries" (i.e. Muslims) as low as 200,000. OK, that's the "political correct" number, and as such incorrect. Nobody seems to know the real number of Muslims here, but let me try some deductions :

In 1950 the total population of Denmark was 4.7 millions. Now it's 5.5 millions. Danish women don't reproduce sufficiently to sustain the Danish population. Let's say it has diminished some 200,000. Accordingly, some 1,000,000 must be immigrants. Even an optimistic estimate tells me that at least 800,000 are Muslims. That would mean that the present percentage of Muslims here is 14.5%.

Although it doesn't change the meaning of the article, the situation is a bit more serious. I wonder why Jyllands-Posten ate those number raw ?.

anti-uffe said...

Check this site for a thorough debunking of such (deliberate?) hokum:

Such claims are not new in the Danish debate. Basically, the trick is omitting persons who have been granted Danish citizenship. The guy who runs the site I link to seems pretty competent and convincing, although some of his writing borders on the loony/paranoid. He is, however, a college educated economist, and apparently well versed in statistics.

I would put this canard from the Sweet Dreams Institute in the "keep the masses calm, nothing we can do now anyway" box.

anti-uffe said...

BTW I did email the journalists at the JP to request a follow-up to this story. I pointed out that anybody can go down in any street and count the burkas and the prams. It just does not add up to a mere 8% in 2050. Lies, damn lies.

Yorkshireminer said...

Dear Anti-uffe you remind me of a quote from Disraeli who said that there are three types of lies Lies Damn lies and statistics seems rather relevant here