An EMP in Your Future

Our Flemish correspondent VH has translated a series of reports from the Dutch media about the frightening possibility that Iran will use nuclear weapons to create a catastrophic electromagnetic pulse (EMP) over the coast of Europe as well as over the United States.

First, from De Telegraaf:

PVV fears attack by Iran

The PVV is seriously worried about alarming intelligence reports on Iranian missile launchings from cargo ships. According to weapons experts the Iranian launching tests from sea are a clear sign that the regime is practicing the launching of EMP missiles: nuclear loads that are detonated at high altitude and generate an electromagnetic pulse (EMP).

“One such EMP wave paralyzes a complete continent. The radiation burns electronics over a region thousands of kilometers in circumference, as a result of which everything falls silent: transport, electricity infrastructure, communications. A country is “flashed back” to the Middle Ages, experts warn.

By using ships as a launch platform on commercial shipping routes, relatively simple missiles, with a limited range, can be used to hit the heart of Europe and America. Iran acknowledged several weeks ago that it can launch missiles from the sea with extreme precision.

MP Raymond de Roon and MEP Louis Bontes, both PVV, believe that the Netherlands and Europe are blind to this danger. The politicians are demanding that measures to be taken, such as the Americans take to protect vital infrastructure. Bontes: “Reports of the U.S. EMP commission show that it is technically possible, at a relatively low cost, but the Netherlands is doing nothing.”

The politicians want Iranian ships to remain as far away as possible from the Dutch coast, and all Iranian ship movements to be monitored. “From an Iranian freighter an EMP attack can be started relatively easily by launching by a missile. It cannot be that the United States, and recently England, have prohibited all transactions with the Iranian state shipping company while these ships still are able to happily sail in the Port of Rotterdam.”

PVV MP Roon demands, based on a revealing report in newspaper De Telegraaf [“Deadly cargo”, see below], clarity on whether the “the brand-new national disaster communication network, which in the toughest conditions would be used by Dutch authorities and emergency services, are rather EMP-resistant”.

VH adds:

PVV MP Raymond de Roon has questioned the Minister of Defense and the Interior Minister in response to reports that Iran is secretly developing the means to launch a disruptive attack with an electromagnetic pulse.

From the answers he received it became clear that the Netherlands is not at all ready to defend against such an attack. […] The Minister of Defense did not even seem to be aware of this danger, and only expressed the hope that a “unit” would be aware of the documents that show the possibility of this threat. Ultimately, the Home Secretary promised that the risks and consequences of an EMP attack will be dealt with in a report that will be issued late 2009 […] so it can be decided what is needed to obtain an acceptable for such security”. In written questions to the ministers, Raymond de Roon among other things has asked whether the Government also takes into account the deployment of such weapons not by Iran, but by a terrorist organization that is supplied by Iran.

From Het Vrije Volk:
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Iran might be able to win a war against West

By Encina Navan

The war of Iran against the west is primarily psychological. Those who poorly understand the intentions of the other have already lost much.

The report [see “PVV fears attack by Iran”] about Iran sending freighter ships to Europe with an eye to a future war is not surprising. The report once again makes clear that the fate of Europe is strongly linked to that of Israel.

An EMP attack on Europe could remove the support for Israel and pave the way for a massive land attack against Israel with the aim of conquering Jerusalem.

It of course is quite easy to reject this scenario as being far-fetched, because it is in such sharp contrast to the Western technological superiority we experience daily. But this superiority is at present entirely based on one technique: the chip.

A nuclear EMP attack may disable the electronic circuits in a large part of Europe [note], but also a non-nuclear EMP attack could do that [note].

In the U.S. ever since the Cold War the effects of an EMP attack have been considered:

Even scarier, say policy analysts, is the growing threat of an EMP, an intense burst of energy from an exploding nuclear warhead high above the Earth. Experts believe such an attack could destroy all electronic devices over a massive area, from cell phones to computers to America’s electrical grid.

Within a year of that attack nine out of 10 Americans would be dead, because we can’t support a population of the present size in urban centers and the like without electricity, said Frank Gaffney, president of the Center for Security Policy. That would be a world without America, as a practical matter. And that is exactly what I believe the Iranians are working towards. [source: National Terror Alert — emphasis added by author]

Admitted: chips can be effectively protected against an EMP attack, but at present only major military circuits have this protection and thus not civilian targets. [read extensively on the background of this here]. The economy can thus be paralyzed.

Objection 1. It is for Iran still all but about Jerusalem. Europe has nothing to do with this.

This is what Iran wants to make us to believe. Iran plays a refined game of geostrategy. In every possible way Iran tries to raise the impression that it is busy with a nuclear weapon and that the nuclear weapons will be aimed at Israel. Both strategies are complementary: they must both be kept at the forefront, otherwise nothing will come true of the whole idea.

Jerusalem is important, but Jerusalem will be conquered by knocking out Europe. With an EMP attack that can be done, without Iran having to risk a war on the ground. Iran knows that in the case of an attack on the ground against them, the invaders will be technologically superior.

Objection 2. This plan cannot succeed because most Muslims in Iran are Shia and most Muslims in Europe are Sunni.

The distinction between the two groups is merely on their difference in opinion on who the successor of the Prophet is, and some other minor historical issues. On 99% on their faith, the Sunni and Shia agree. If Iran succeeds in resisting the power of Europe and even in conquering Jerusalem, the country then will have overcome such an important psychological threshold that in the eyes of many Muslims it will deserve the leadership. Remember that Egypt in earlier centuries was Shia, and that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has lost considerable authority. The erasing of humiliations caused by the past defeats by Israel is very important.

Objection 3. An EMP attack is not enough. The army is protected against this and still can respond.

The army can only operate a limited time without transport of supplies from the civil economy. The purpose of an EMP attack is more aimed at the civil structure, because that is unprotected. As the economy collapses, when production stagnates and panic breaks out, it will prove to be impossible to keep the military operational, let alone deploy it abroad [this may possibly also be the case when the economy collapses due to hyperinflation or a bank-crash].

Objection 4. Because the military is protected against an EMP attack, it will disable the sources of the attack, after which the circuits can be restored. This will provide Iran with very little time and above all the certainty of retaliation.

Iran perhaps only needs a few weeks to at least conquer Jerusalem [in such a case]. If this then succeeds, the enthusiasm among Muslims will tilt the balance. Volunteers will be flocking to the area to die as martyrs. Moreover, at the same time the situation in Europe will be changing. Initially there will be chaos, because nothing works: lights, computers [internet], remote controls, automatic doors, security, elevators, etc. People who depend on these devices will be overcome by helplessness. People accustomed to the use of (small) weapons [and who have them at home] have more options to take action in such a situation [which is valid for both the “good” and the “bad”].

Widespread rioting will enable Muslims to achieve greater powers in the districts, such as installing Sharia. Once a few months have elapsed, Muslim organizations across Europe will have made use of such situation to further Islamize their environment. Entire neighborhoods will have gone over to Islamic government, and will have instituted the Sharia, expelled Jews, turned Christians to dhimmis, and displaced gay people or murdered them.

They in groups will plunder a wide area, while European governments in underground factories are desperately trying to produce enough chips to at least restore everyday life. A war against Iran or supping Israel would be out of the question, it will be up to these European countries first to try to survive.

There can hardly be a question of retaliation, because Europe will have little to gain from that. The only alternative for European leaders will be to immediately retaliate with nuclear warheads launched from submarines.

Objection 5. Iran depends on oil revenues and can not afford so such a deep crisis with Europe.

This reasoning depends on a suppressed premise, namely that rational leaders would make the same considerations as leaders in Europe might do. This precisely is not the case. Iran pursues an ideological war with the aim of establishing the Islam in the entire world, whereby that country attributes to itself the leadership.

For such a purpose, millions of deaths are a small sacrifice, especially considering that the martyrs will end up in heaven. The earthly world is but only a preparation for the afterlife. Furthermore, a Europe that is trying to recover from an EMP attack is even more dependent on oil than before. Moreover there are other buyers of oil, such as India, Japan and China. [Although their Western sales market will be in disorder]

Objection 6. Muslims in Europe are in general not pro-Iran. This country would not achieve a lot towards installing Sharia in the urban areas of Europe.

In the short term this is certainly true, but Iran is not implementing a short-term policy. The massive riots in Europe would have the primary objective of distracting the European governments until the conquest of Jerusalem is achieved. The leadership of Iran then subsequently in the following years would have to work on the attitude of the Muslims to reorient themselves slowly towards Iran. The demographics at that time will do the rest. Of course do also the leaders of Iran know that a military occupation of Europe is not feasible.

Objection 7. The scenario is of too large a scale and contains too many uncertainties.

That is exactly what makes it so attractive for people like Ahmadinejad who adheres to a messianic worldview. To them, the psychological factor, the wish to achieve great things, is much more motivating than the careful weighing of small steps forward. The reality is for them is no more than the imperative to establish the glory of Allah. Symbolism is more important than the reality.

The uncertainties to them are opportunities for a new glorious future. Hitler was not deterred by uncertainties. Hitler realized that he could occupy Paris by first defeating Poland [Others think that when the remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936 was left unanswered, the way was paved to occupy countries to the east. Compare Iran’s militarization: nuclear weapons program, arming Hizbullah].

With the recapture of al-Quds, Iran will achieve two very important goals: the leadership in the Islamic world by regaining a holy city, and by erasing the past humiliations caused by the defeats by Israel, for which Europe is considered partly responsible.

Also important is that Iran wants to show the world that Iran is willing counter insult, such as with the Muhammad cartoons, by erasing it with blood. Iran needs the support of Muslims in Europe to be able to claim this leadership. Why? Because Iran traditionally faces great mistrust in its own region. If Iran succeeds in motivating Muslims in Europe, this will certainly have an echo in the rest of the Muslim world.

Iran may receive this support because Muslims in Europe are eager for spiritual leadership, that they are not only hardly able to find in their own environment, but also in the countries of origin of their parents.

Once this stage is reached, Iran will find itself in a new situation. It can conquer the Gulf States and reduce Saudi Arabia to a vassal state. Remember that Iranian rebels back in 1979 tried to conquer the great mosque in Mecca^[1], and in 1981 to conquer Mecca itself [also, this year the Saudis were preparing for a riot by Iranian Hajis: “Saudi Arabia has bolstered its security force amid threats that Iran could disrupt the annual Islamic pilgrimage.”]. Iran and Saudi Arabia are already waging a state border [proxy] war in Yemen.

Geert Wilders is right when he says that Israel is the frontline of the West against the entirety of Islam. With this distinction, that the true purpose of Islam is the Islamization of Europe, and not that of Jerusalem. The Islamization of Europe would break the power of the U.S., and then Iran would have achieved what the Soviet Union always failed to do.

Note:

[1]

400 armed Islamic extremists seized the Grand Mosque in Mecca in 1979, taking hundreds of pilgrims hostage and calling for the overthrow of the Saudi monarchy and for severance of all ties with the West. They were crushed only after two weeks of tough fighting in which 250 people were killed. The Saudi government publicly beheaded 67 captured militants. The young Osama bin Laden is said to have been deeply impressed by the revolt and told his friends that the insurgents were “true Muslims.” [source] “Otaibi and Qahtani had met while being imprisoned together for sedition, when Otaibi claimed to have a vision sent by God telling him that Qahtani was the Mahdi. Their declared goal was to institute a theocracy in preparation for the imminent apocalypse. Many of their followers were drawn from theology students at the Islamic University in Medina, which was known as a center of the Muslim Brotherhood. Other followers came from Yemen, Kuwait, and Egypt and also included some Muslim African-Americans.” [source].

Finally, from De Telegraaf:

Deadly cargo

By Bart Olmer

Around midnight on the night of November 3 last, on the Mediterranean Sea near Cyprus, 100 nautical miles west of Israel, an Israeli commando unit intercepted the container ship Francop, which had been shadowed by the Mossad since its departure from Damietta. In that Egyptian port the ship had loaded containers from another ship, cargo from Bandar Abbas, Iran. [The website of De Telegraaf has a video of the interception of the Iranian freighter full of weapons.]

During a first, cursory inspection aboard, the Israeli navy seals at once discovered ammunition boxes in the containers, upon which the Francop-crew immediately received command to shift the course. No longer could the smuggling ship head to the West-Syrian port city of Latakia, but rather had to moor in the Israeli port of Ashdod for a thorough search.

Once on the quay 36 containers were found with 500 tons of weapons, hidden behind bags of polyethylene, raw material for the manufacture of plastic goods. The 24,224 bags of plastic powder camouflaged the true load: 2800 artillery shells, 9000 mortar shells, 20,000 cluster bombs, 600,000 rifle cartridges, 3,000 anti-tank grenades and 20,000 hand grenades. Weaponry, destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon. These images of this are on the Telegraaf website.

Clandestine

The Francop trafficking illustrates how bold and cunning Iran evades sanctions, as described in a secret foreign intelligence report: a range of clandestine operations in order to evade sanctions, with the use of its fleet of ships and the banking system.

The Central Bank of Iran is designated as an important tool in the avoidance of financial sanctions: “This Bank assists companies and organizations that are affected by sanctions so that they can continue their illegal activities,” one intelligence source said.

Iran is also suspected of setting up “front companies”, behind which offending companies continue their illegal operations. Iran also abused other countries as a base for its boycotted banks, such as Abu Dhabi and Dubai, hubs for international financial markets, and foreign subsidiary companies, to evade sanctions.

To erase financial trails for the U.S. intelligence service, Iran uses hardly any dollars and prefers to pay only in euros, Asian, and other local currencies. Also the intelligence services see that Iran forcedly uses civilian techniques used for military use, such as advanced milling machines, which can be abused in the arms industry.

But Iran has more tricks. As revealed with the Francop-affair, the country abuses innocent goods and misleading routes to disguise the true intentions, according to intelligence sources.

The Francop arms shipment was “scrambled”: within days it was loaded from one to the other in different ports using different ships: in Bandar Abbas (Iran) on the boat Sakas, in Jebel Ali (United Arab Emirates) on the ship Visea, and then in Damietta (Egypt) the — later intercepted — Francop.

An important role in the evasion of sanctions is played by the Iranian state shipping company IRISL, against which more and more countries are taking measures. “This shipping company gathers its fleet under foreign flags, constantly changes its fleet of names and abuses foreign lease-ships to circumvent controls,” according to one intel report. “Francop” sailed for instance under the flag of Antigua and Barbuda and was hired by a seemingly unsuspicious Cypriot transporter: “United Feeding Services”.

It is these cargo ships that are listed in a horrifying scenario, on which intelligence agencies are warning of: the launching a nuclear warhead from a ship in order to get close enough to the target area. The explosion is not intended to directly cause damage, but a radiation wave, a so called Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP), to cause all electronics be eliminated in one blow. “Iran is practicing the firing of missiles from cargo ships, which from the outside are no different from regular cargo ships”, American intelligence experts say.

A few months ago Dr. William Graham, a former White House adviser, raised the alarm on a series of Iranian tests from the Caspian Sea, whereby Scud rockets were launched from cargo ships. Not in a curve, but straight up, where the missiles at their maximum altitude exploded.

Graham and other weapons experts regard this as uncanny: “The only likely explanation we can find is that the Iranians are working out how to launch a missile from a ship to very high altitudes, to have them explode there. That is precisely what they might do if they have a nuclear warhead on a Scud or a Shahab-3 missile, and want it to explode above the U.S.,” said Graham, chairman of a special commission established by the American Congress, to assess the threat of a potential EMP attack.

Sneak Attack

Graham’s commission frankly warns of a sneak attack: “Even if a primitive nuclear weapon were to explode at altitude between 40 and 400 kilometers, that would generate an electromagnetic pulse within a fraction of a second, paralyzing all military and civilian technology: communications, transport, water, food and electricity. A long range missile is not necessary: such an attack can be launched from a freighter along the U.S. coast or European coast, using a medium range missile,” committee chairman Graham said.

To the Congress, Graham stated that Iranian military documents, intercepted by the CIA, explicitly say that a nuclear EMP attack must force America to its knees. “The probability of an EMP attack is greater than during the Cold War.” Other weapons experts are warning without any reservation: “Iran is planning to knock out the U.S. with one nuclear bomb”, or “Iran has plans to cripple the U.S. with a one nuclear payload.”

A U.S. missile study group revealed a few months ago that Iran recently performed tests to make Shahab-3 missiles explode remotely, during the flight, with one push of a button. This is, according to technical experts in this independent study group, “a clear indication that an EMP attack is being practiced “.

This would be a true Armageddon, because each affected country would literally be flashed back to the nineteenth century. Not directly due to the explosion, but within one weeks, people would be dying like flies, especially in the cities, because of lack of drinking water, sanitation, food, fuel, and communications. “The modern electronic economy ceases to exist, America falls back to a on barter-based society. The American population then will be down to approximately 30 million people, roughly the number at the time of American independence,” according to Graham’s grim warning.

The committee strongly warns of the dangers of the Iranian cargo fleet, which makes unobstructed use of commercial shipping routes all over the globe.

“If Iran launches a rocket from a cargo ship sailing in the commercial shipping routes along the U.S. East Coast, a scenario that seems to have been trained for with the latest Iranian missile tests in the Caspian Sea, then we may never find out who was responsible for the attack. To erase all traces, the Iranians could simply have them sink the ship,” Graham said. During these tests Iran made use of ships whose radar and technical equipment were comparable to the dozens of surrounding vessels. To investigate which ship might has a launching pad would take months.

Only a few weeks ago, the highest Iranian naval commander gave reasons for the fear of this Armageddon scenario. “The precision capability of Iranian missiles is nearly 100 percent,” said Brigadier General Ali Fadavi against an Iranian news agency. “Iran is now one of the countries that possess the technology to fire missiles from ships and submarines with maximum precision and minimum deviation.” Arms experts point to the circumstance that China, Iran and North Korea are developing small, quiet, diesel-powered submarines, which can operate in shallow coastal waters.

Disturbance

In Dutch policy documents on disaster relief there is no mention of a widespread EMP attack, or a deliberate disruption of the electricity supply.

The Ministry of Interior in a — later classified as “confidential state secret” — study by the Dutch TNO recently described how Dutch society would be disrupted if one province were to be without electricity due to a terrorist action.

The study reads like a chilling scenario, but still is a child’s game compared to a full “black-out”: gas stations can not provide fuel, communications break down in the area, special broadcasting channels in case of a disaster, such as on radio, TV and internet, are not working, drinking water becomes contaminated, water pumping stations stop working, stores will be closed, food supplies must be controlled, livestock is in serious problems, lack of cash, payments are stopped, problems in prisons by faltering food and water supplies, shortage of cells by riots, farmers want to evacuate their livestock, patients dying in hospitals, social unrest, hoarding behavior, and flight behavior, as is described in the most recent “National Risk Assessment”. There is a chance that a terrorist group will see the electricity sector as a potential target, as it causes a massive disruption of daily life,” according to the national safety report.