The following interview with the Tunisian historian Alaya Allani from Die Welt discusses the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in the current Egyptian uprising, and the part the Ikhwan is likely to play in the near future.
Many thanks to JLH for the translation:
The Muslim Brotherhood Would Win the First Election
by Alfred Hackensberger
February 3, 2011
Islam expert Alaya Allani sees the extremist movement on the march — but only for a short time. Tunisia and Algeria are in turmoil trending toward democracy. In both countries, there are Islamist movements, and no one knows what influence they will have. Historian Alaya Allani of the University of Tunis is known as an expert on Islamism in North Africa and offers some insights into what goals the Muslim Brotherhood pursues, for instance, and what are the odds in the coming elections.
Welt: When the protests began, the Muslim Brotherhood did not officially take part. Why did the largest opposition group in Egypt hold back? Allani: The Muslim Brotherhood wanted to wait and see how the protests develop. They were afraid of being washed over by a wave of Mubarak regime arrests. When it was certain that the popularity of the demonstrations was growing day by day, they decided to participate fully.
Now they and all the other parties are claiming to be the ones who started the revolution. In reality, all the legal parties just jumped on the bandwagon. It is almost a copy of events in Tunisia: A popular rebellion of young academics and marginalized elements which spread rapidly to other social groups and political parties.Welt: Now the Muslim Brotherhood feels strong and does not even want to negotiate with Mubarak about a transition to democracy. Allani: They are convinced that Mubarak has to resign as head of state. So they announced they are not ready to negotiate. Welt: The Muslim Brotherhood is supposed to have hundreds of thousands of followers that they can mobilize at any time. Are they in for an important role in the protests? Allani: The Muslim Brotherhood’s influence is relative. In this popular uprising, this revolt, no single group can claim to have a majority or greater influence. So the Muslim Brotherhood is trying to underpin its profile by emphasizing social and political aspects of the protests.
They give enthusiastic speeches about social services and health services, medical care, food and so forth. At the same time, they have radically changed their attitude toward Mubarak and his promises of reform. At the beginning they would not have had what is now their only slogan: “Mubarak, disappear!”Welt: The Muslim Brotherhood’s leadership team is already very long in the tooth. Do they even have a connection to the wishes and needs of the young people on the street? Allani: The older leaders were amazed by the reach of this revolution. In Tunisia, too, no one had expected this magnitude. You can say that the older leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood does not know and probably would not understand the true motivations and wishes. Don’t forget, the Muslim Brotherhood was manipulated and corrupted by the Mubarak regime. As the model opposition — officially forbidden but tolerated. Loved more or less, from time to time. Welt: Who is the Muslim Brotherhood?
Allani: The Muslim Brotherhood understand Islam as a single entity made up of politics, religion and Islamic law as a political and social organizing principle. Welt: How strongly is the Muslim Brotherhood rooted in today’s Egyptian society? Allani: The actual strength of the Muslim Brotherhood is unknown. It can only be estimated. It grew stronger and stronger during Mubarak’s dictatorship. Several observers feared there could be a scenario like the one in Algeria with the Islamic Salvation Front. They won the elections there in 1991, because the voters wanted to send the corrupt authorities a message. Welt: And today? Allani: I believe the Muslim Brotherhood will become the strongest party in a new parliament. They can count on a third of the votes in the next elections. That will work only right after the changeover. Then there will be a phase when they will weaken. In the end, they have don’t have a convincing program for the young people. Besides economic and social benefits, the young people want modernity. Welt: Where do the members of the Muslim Brotherhood come from? Are they from particular levels of society? Who are the most fanatic followers? Allani: They come from the traditional bourgeoisie, the classic middle class. Teachers, lawyers and doctors. A small number of them are socially disadvantaged. That is because the Muslim Brotherhood believes that their sacred message should be spread to all social classes. I have already mentioned their strongest adherents: teachers, doctors and lawyers. Welt: How sure is a power-sharing arrangement with the Muslim Brotherhood? Allani: In a change of power the Muslim Brotherhood will certainly be in the parliament. But not necessarily in the administration. As we have seen in recent days, it is and will be a decisive factor in Egypt. The military will not allow a wholesale sharing in the government by the Brotherhood. Conditions like those in Turkey, with the PJD in the government are not in the cards. At the executive level, there will be at most a symbolic participation of the a Muslim Brotherhood. Welt: In the event that the Muslim Brotherhood is voted into the government, would that not have fatal consequences for relations with Israel? Allani: In recent years, the Muslim Brotherhood has become more pragmatic. Two years ago they announced that the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel would not be abrogated, but at the same time, there would be no normalization of relations with the governing Netanyahu administration. Everything with the Palestinians would stay the same: firm connections as before. Especially intensive cooperation with Hamas. Welt: In the USA, there is concern about Egypt and the future role of the Muslim Brotherhood. Considering the geo-political position of Egypt, can this Islamist group become the USA’s nightmare? Allani: I don’t think they can become a nightmare. One way or another, in a democratic parliament, they have to work with the other parties. They can follow the example of the PJD in Turkey. Besides that, they will be participating in the repositioning in the Arab-Israeli conflict. With regard to relations with Israel, there will be new rules.
With or without the Muslim Brotherhood, a new Egyptian government will not simply take over Mubarak’s position. Another important factor must not be forgotten: Neither the Muslim Brotherhood nor other political parties want to give up military aid from the USA. Naturally, the army will do everything possible not to snub the USA and lose the money.Welt: And the peace process? Allani: In my opinion, tactical calculations will cause the Muslim Brotherhood to support the peace process. That is the best way to represent the interests of their partner, Hamas. Welt: Tunisia has its own Islamists. Rachid Ghanouchi, the leader of Ennanda has returned from exile. Doesn’t he come from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt? Allani: Yes, he is of that school. The Muslim Brotherhood are his allies. But Ghanouchi is considerably more open and approachable — exactly what concerns the West. On the day of his arrival in Tunis, he announced that sharia — Islamic law — is not a priority for him. A normal rule of law is for him the fundamental basis of a pluralistic democracy. And, he says, the emancipation of women — which is unequaled in all other Arab lands — must definitely be maintained. Welt: Can all that not just be a tactic? Allani: Who knows?
10 comments:
Allani forgets one thing -- the MB types may be old and out of touch -- they still have/own the Mosques and Islam. Fighting Mubarak is one thing - going against Allah is quite another. The MB have already assassinated one Egyptian President - Case closed.Best of luck to the "modernizers" - they will NEED it.
Dr. Shalit
They are convinced that Mubarak has to resign as head of state. So they announced they are not ready to negotiate.
Mubarak might wish to penalize such uncooperativeness and spin it as being a disruption to any smooth transition. As one of the few Middle East leaders who has been conciliatory towards Israel; it might behoove Mubarak to expand that role and demonstrate his dedication to a truly secular government by showing concern for the Coptic population and forcing the Muslim Brotherhood to make commitments regarding how that minority will be treated in any future government.
The Muslim Brotherhood’s leadership team is already very long in the tooth. Do they even have a connection to the wishes and needs of the young people on the street?
This major issue is complicated by several matters. Islam promotes age deference and most imams are elderly. That said, the highly conservative nature of elderly clerics may backfire with a younger generation that enjoys social networking (e.g., Facebook, Twitter).
In fact, Twitter has been instrumental in getting out reports and organizing demonstrations in the Egyptian uprising. How to balance that with the way that Twitter enables unauthorized contact between young men and women is another matter entirely.
As an example, camera cell phones are posing a huge problem to conservative Islamic regimes. It permits young people to exchange images of each other and has already been a factor in crimes like rape. One particular case involved a Saudi woman who was almost beaten to death at a wedding party when it was found that − despite there being gender segregated areas − this individual was taking cell phone images of the unveiled eligible women in their separate tent and transmitting them to her brothers.
As always, a throwback culture like Islam is going to be at cross purposes with respect to technological advances and how they facilitate social interaction. This opposition to the normal flow of progress has already stagnated Islamic culture but it is now approaching a breaking point as younger generations become accustomed to the benefits of modern technology.
The Muslim Brotherhood understand Islam as a single entity made up of politics, religion and Islamic law as a political and social organizing principle.
At least Allani was honest enough to place “politics” before “religion” in his list. Too few people will ever catch such a slip much less understand the true meaning of it.
In the end, they have don’t have a convincing program for the young people. Besides economic and social benefits, the young people want modernity.
Yet, none of that is enough to stop these morons from installing a repressive faction like the Ikhwan that will rig elections and issue death fatwan as needed in order to retain power. Modernity and shari’a law are not just incompatible, they are cross-canceling and deadly enemies. There is no such thing as “progressive” shari’a law.
Egypt’s youth are about to find this out. Only then it will be too late because one of the world’s most repressive organizations will have their hand on the tiller and fingers on the trigger of enough military might to quell all opposition.
Egypt’s military does not appear to provide any counterbalancing role like in Turkey. Without this key player available to reinforce secularism, there may be little hope of avoiding another Iranian-style implosion of rigid Islamic oppression.
Having this happen in such close proximity to Israel does not bode at all well.
The military will not allow a wholesale sharing in the government by the Brotherhood. Conditions like those in Turkey, with the PJD in the government are not in the cards. At the executive level, there will be at most a symbolic participation of the a Muslim Brotherhood.
We shall see but by then it will be too late.
[continued]
Everything with the Palestinians would stay the same: firm connections as before. Especially intensive cooperation with Hamas.
All of which may require Israel to apply another stunning beatdown to Egypt.
Another important factor must not be forgotten: Neither the Muslim Brotherhood nor other political parties want to give up military aid from the USA. Naturally, the army will do everything possible not to snub the USA and lose the money.
Normally, this would represent a total Mexican standoff as the Muslim Brotherhood is a recognized terrorist organization. Given Obama’s mooncalf attitude towards all things Islamic, all bets are off. There is just barely enough time for an Ikhwan takeover of Egypt to come full circle and bite Obama on his butt for the 2012 elections.
America’s Conservatives had best begin making hay over any support that is directed to the Muslim Brotherhood. Unfortunately, from all indicators, even that is hoping for too much.
In my opinion, tactical calculations will cause the Muslim Brotherhood to support the peace process. That is the best way to represent the interests of their partner, Hamas.
You can almost hear the taqiyya dripping off of Allani’s words. One cannot simultaneously support Hamas and any “peace process”; except if you are a Muslim, that is. Then anything is possible.
One thing that can be predicted is this; the possibility of some serious epidemics in post takeover Egypt.
Muslim authorities in Egypt used the recent swine flu scare as an excuse to kill off the pigs that Copts keep in order to help process the mountains of garbage whose collection is the lot of this minority religious sect. Soon after the pigs were slaughtered, garbage began piling up in Egypt’s major cities.
If the Ikhwan are stupid enough to immediately begin pogroms against the Copts, this could very well lead to epidemics of water-borne and vermin related diseases ranging anywhere from cholera to the bubonic plague.
If there is one thing that Islam does particularly well, it is falling prey to the Law of Unintended Consequences™. The Egyptian situation is an incubator for a host of consequences that remain to be seen.
Above all, the Ikhwan had best remember that one single low-yield nuclear tipped Israeli cruise missile − sent into the face of High Aswan Dam − would wash some 80% - 90% of Egypt’s population out to sea. Shouts of “Death to Israel”, led by the Muslim Brotherhood, may be one of the last things than many Egyptians hear.
Zenster, I believe you misunderstood Allani on one point. You quoted him --
The Muslim Brotherhood understand Islam as a single entity made up of politics, religion and Islamic law as a political and social organizing principle.
Then you wrote:
"At least Allani was honest enough to place “politics” before “religion” in his list. Too few people will ever catch such a slip much less understand the true meaning of it."
Allani wasn't talking about Islam here -- he was talking about "hijacked Islam" -- Islam interpreted by the "extremist", i.e., supposedly un-representative Muslim Brotherhood.
Allani here is just purveying the "Islam is not a monolith, it's too diverse to pin down as an extremist danger" meme.
This whole interview is an exercise in reinforcing Good Cop Islam apologetics in a subtle framework of PC MC language Allani has picked up well. As with our sci-fi Muslim Cherif, Allani is either sincerely and strangely schizophrenic about his own Islam and can't even see and smell the disease that permeates Tunis let alone the whole Muslim world; or he is slyly lying to us. The third option -- that he is egregiously stupid -- I find hard to believe.
And again, we see in Allani's articulations that curious phenomenon by no means restricted to Muslim apologists: the CPYHRYSATSTS -- the "Can't Pat Your Head and Rub Your Stomach At The Same Time Syndrome".
I.e., because "the Egyptian people" have political and economic grievances, then they can't at the same time have Islamic appetites and desires. This is an oddly simplistic way of framing an issue like this; and yet it comes naturally to PC MCs (and their sly Muslim manipulators).
Closely related to this example is the equally simplistic notion that just because we see Muslims at loggerheads with each other in various ways -- whether verbally disagreeing, having differences of which sociopolitical system is best, arguing, debating, erupting into fisticuffs, fighting, killing, factions fighting against each other, even up to civil unrest and even wars (e.g., Iran vs. Iraq), we are supposed to conclude that Islam is not a unified danger to the world.
What people who indulge in the above simplistic notion don't seem to understand (but which a remedial course in the history of Islam, combined with elementary insights into Muslim psychology will yield) is that Islam is a diseased system of obsessive-compulsive fanaticism which breeds a whole spectrum of social and psychological dysfunctions. Thus, it is no surprise that wherever we look, we see Muslims at loggerheads with each other, often flaring up into violence. This doesn't mean Islam is not unified in its fanaticism; nor does it mean that Muslims do not pose a danger to us. It is simply a variegated symptom of the disease of Islam. (Of course, what it does indicate is that Islam is not as dangerous as it could be were it a well=oiled perfecty lock-step ideological machine where all function as a unit without any internecine problems; but this shouldn't be taken as a license to indulge in a complacency about the unique danger Islam poses to the West.)
If the brotherhood were to seize power it would be a sad, sad day for isreal and the West.
Not to mention the Egyptian people themselves who may be dragged into unnecessacary conflict.
Rule Britannia
Hesperado: … I believe you misunderstood Allani on one point.
Ummmm … no. Allani is a taqiyya spewing Muslim orifice just like so many others. Which is exactly what I identified him as just prior to giving him his backhanded praise for being honest. The word "slip" cannot be construed as legitimizing anything this Islamic mouthpiece says.
Only the totally uninitiated would perceive Allani as either distancing himself from or making any distinction between the Ikhwan and Islam as a whole.
The Moslem Brotherhood want to revive the Caliphate only this time with Egypt at the center, not Turkey. This is a powerful incentive for the Egyptian military to join with them. This coupled with the rapid resignation of Mubarak after the report of the death of the Saudi King says that things in Egypt are not as settled as we would like and that the Army is open to influence from all fronts.
Zenster,
In your dismissal of my point in my argument, you didn't address why I thought you misunderstood Allani.
Mubarak should have wiped out the Muslim Brotherhood before resigning.
Now they will be coming after him... with state powers.
In hoc signo vinces
Most ridiculous news comment ever BBC TV news reporter - This is the first time the Egyptians have been free in 9,000 years.
The ashes of the burnt offerings of the flags of the United States and Israel on the streets of Cairo are notable by there absence.
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