New York’s 23rd District a Bellwether Campaign

The Club for Growth says that the 3rd party (Conservative) candidate is leading in the special election to replace former Congressman John McHugh who is now Obama’s Secretary of the Army:

The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question.

This is the third poll done for the Club for Growth in the NY-23 special election, and Doug Hoffman is the only candidate to show an increase in his support levels in each successive poll. The momentum in the race is clearly with Hoffman.

“Hoffman now has a wide lead among both Republicans and Independents, while Owens has a wide lead among Democrats. Dede Scozzafava’s support continues to collapse, making this essentially a two-candidate race between Hoffman and Owens in the final week,” concluded Basswood Research’s pollster Jon Lerner, who conducted the poll for the Club.

I’ve wondered if Obama appointed McHugh in order to get rid of a pesky Republican and replace him with a safer candidate? Did he know that the GOP would put up Dede Scozzafava or someone of her ilk to run in his place? Did he think that the electorate in the 23rd distinct, having been safely Republican for many generations, would obediently vote for this RINO, thereby (in reality) giving the Dems a safe vote for their side?

Scozzafava is anything but a conservative. She’s so pro-abortion she won the Margaret Sanger award. She’s definitely pro-Card Check: her husband is a union leader. And she’s reliably crooked, having already skimmed campaign funds off into a bank account for her sister-in-law.

As I’ve said before, politicians like her,who are nothing but cogs in GOP machine, are part of the Republican disease. As if they were on a suicide mission, the district GOP chairs got together to choose a candidate and the best they could do was Dede Scozzafava. That’s disgraceful.

Newt Gingrich, out of touch and out of tune, actually wrote a letter of endorsement for Scozzafava, as did the Republican National Committee. It is decisions like these which are causing the GOP to hemorrhage members. Few people want to be associated with individuals and groups who are so tone deaf.
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The RNC and Gingrich got little support from regular Republican congressman, though. I think she received a total of 17 checks from them, though the RNC bankrolled her generously.

Newt majorly doesn’t get it. After this horrible gaffe, which he still insists was a good idea, he is chiding those who aren’t on Scozzafava’s bandwagon with him. On top of that, he has announced he’s considering a run for the Republican candidate for the presidency in 2012. I take it back; he's not just tone deaf, the man can’t hear at all.

Meanwhile, Governor Pawlenty has endorsed the Conservative candidate, Hoffman. This news comes just as Gallup announces that conservatives are maintaining their edge in the polls:

Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.

Pawlenty’s endorsement of Hoffman over Scozzafava is part of a growing chorus of politicians who want to position themselves on the distinctly conservative side of the GOP:

Pawlenty, who has raised his profile in recent weeks as he lays the foundations for a possible presidential bid, becomes the latest candidate to support Hoffman over Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava (R), the candidate selected by local party leaders to carry the Republican standard.

“We cannot send more politicians to Washington who wear the Republican jersey on the campaign trail but then vote like Democrats in Congress on issues like card-check and taxes,” Pawlenty said. “After reviewing the candidates’ positions, I’m endorsing Doug Hoffman in New York’s special election. Doug understands the federal government needs to quit spending so much, will vote against tax increases and protect[s] key values like the right to vote in private in union elections.”

As they seek favor with conservative organizations and activists key to winning their party’s nomination, several potential candidates have announced they support Hoffman.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) called Hoffman a candidate who would stand against politics as usual. Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) said on Friday that a vote for Hoffman is a vote for a conservative Republican. And former House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas) campaigned with Hoffman last week.

And in an effort to distinguish himself as a more conservative candidate, Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-Kan.) - running against Rep. Jerry Moran (R) in a Senate primary - announced last week that he would support Hoffman.

So it’s a conservative bandwagon and Hoffman finds himself the fortunate recipient of their favor by virtue of running in the earliest Congressional election. The others won’t take place until 2010.

Whichever one wins, Democrat Owens or Conservative Hoffman, at least there will be truth in advertising on this race:

“The Republicans basically nominated a not-mainstream Republican candidate,” said Saul Anuzis, the former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party who ran to serve as chairman of the Republican National Committee. “It’s not like she’s off on one issue; she’s off on almost every issue.

“As the party is trying to define itself and literally find itself, these are the kinds of internal conflicts we’ll find,” Anuzis added. “The question becomes, Are you better off having a Democrat who understands he’s a Democrat, or a Republican who votes like a Democrat?”

I’d rather see Owens in than Scozzafava. She’s already established herself as a bully and a crook.

For all the news on this race, visit Erick at RedState. He’s done a great job covering the roller coaster ride this campaign has become.