Spanish voters granted Zapatero another 4-year term in office yesterday. The first rule of Spanish politics is confirmed: a high participation leads to a victory of the left. Yesterday, 75.32% of the census cast a vote, the same percentage as in 2004 (75.66%). It would be very interesting to know how many people decided to vote after the assassination on Friday of a local PSOE politician. I would have expected some survey to be conducted on this topic; strangely I find very few references to this deadly terrorist attack, as if everyone wanted to forget it. In any case, the strategy declared off-the-record by Zapatero to increase the political unrest during the campaign has paid the dividend.
That is my summary of the results of yesterdays General Elections, and these are the main facts:
- The PSOE has neatly won the elections (169 seats, 165 in 2004) and is close to a majority (175 seats). It has practically got the same number of votes (11.0 million) as in the previous elections on 14 March, three days after the terrorist attack with the highest death toll of Spanish history.
- The PP has also got more seats (153 yesterday, 148 in 2004) and more votes (10.2 million yesterday, 9.8 in 2004). Not enough.
- The minority parties have lost many seats and votes, both the extreme left (IU: 2 seats in 2008, 5 seats in 2004) and nationalist-secessionist parties. The Catalan nationalists got 14 seats (18 in 2004); the Basque nationalists 6 seats in 2008 (8 in 2004). There has been a transfer of votes from these parties to Zapatero’s. There is no better proof of his radical policy.
- UPyD, a new party created after an initiative by a former PSOE parliamentarian, has got a seat for Madrid, draining votes that had been otherwise for the PSOE. This is one of the most promising results of the elections.
- No anti-immigration party has got any seat in parliament; moreover, the number of votes they have got is negligible. This is indeed a very bad news.
I will not elaborate on the regional distribution of the votes, as I do not think they are relevant to you (but if you are acquainted with the administrative breakdown of the country you can see the local results here; click on the tabs on top and select the area). Still, it is interesting that you have a look at this map that shows the most voted party by province:
The Catalan, Basque and Andalusian provinces are socialist. At this stage, the break-up of Spain would be good news for all. Unfortunately, after the current result, the PSOE will be interested to make economical concessions to them, other wise they would have to give a farewell to Spanish government.
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Zapatero should have no problems to assure the support by the parliament, some financial concessions to the nationalist minorities should be enough. Apparently, Spaniards have confirmed they do not mind the breaking of the current constitutional arrangements, nor his negotiations with the ETA, nor they are afraid of the looming economic crisis. It is expected he will continue with the two first policies, but the economic crisis will bring along no easy times for him.
The PP has shown that it has very loyal followers. Still, I do not see any possibility for them to win any electoral campaign in the close future unless there are major mistakes by the PSOE or a very deep crisis. Mariano Rajoy, the leader lacks the gift of demagogical speech. Mariano Rajoy can only hold the current course, but he will not risk initiating other strategies. It is probable that he resigns. There is not a clear successor, but there are some valuable candidates. The PP will face difficult times because of its lack of ideological definition. They have managed the country, but they have not set a policy. This is the universal problem of the moderate right. If the drift towards the left (they say the centre, of course) continues, there is an increasing risk that the party will break away.
The first goal of the PP should be to keep the party united. In order to do it, they should avoid sliding to the centre. They will not get many votes there and they will increase the risk of breaking the party. It is preferable that they let UPyD have some ground there. Still, this will not be enough; they need a populist party to pump out the votes of middle-lower classes, which are those most hurt by the economic crisis and the immigration. This is essential, because the extreme left is in the process of disappearing; Zapatero is radical enough, the PSOE can get all those votes. This will make a victory even more difficult for the PP, as the former extreme left voters will support the PSOE.
In summary, the only way out I can envisage consists of the surge of the UPyD, a moderate left party, and the creation of a populist party that would get votes from the left without undermining the right. The surge of the UPyD could start to be visible in the next regional elections, in 2011. Unfortunately, no reasonable populist party can be envisaged at this point. And the clock continues ticking.
7 comments:
Hi AMDG,
I have found something on UPyD on wikipedia:
International policy, sensitive to the consequences of globalization and world-wide integration, including the phenomenon of immigration, with views to obtain, instead of favouring cultural intolerance, religious fundamentalism and political tyranny, anywhere in the world, to promote progress of humanity and the free development of civilization and universal democratic principles; also the fortification of the European Union will be favoured.
So they are favouring preservation of Spanish and European heritage of Spain? That would be a good news. Did I got it correctly, AMDG?
"There has been a transfer of votes from these (Nationalistic) parties to Zapatero’s. There is no better proof of his radical policy."
Yes, sad to see that the Basques turned Socialists for the first time in their democratic life.
Is it because Zapatero will really made the referendum he has promised, in which it can guarantee a free State to a free Basque People? Just like it was done in Timor?
" will not elaborate on the regional distribution of the votes, as I do not think they are relevant to you..."
Yes of course, it is really non important so that no Spaniards can not understand the real dynamic. I will help you folks:
1) The right in Spain, the PP, is "Castelhanista" which means that it takes Castilla (the centre) as the real Spain, the rest, there are only colonies, just like the U.S.A. were to Britain or the Siberian Far East to Russia.
2)The blue areas (PP) are Castilla, León e La Mancha in the centre. All core Spanish regions, colonised by Castillans (There is only one leftist province, León).
3) The blue areas (PP) in the Southeast are the areas of Murcia and Valencia, which are areas that were conquered from the moors (muslims) relativeley late. It seems that it has been efectiveley colonised by Castillans, only in the rural cost the Catalans subsist today.
3)The blue areas (PP) on the Northwest is a land that was never conquered by the moors, though that people is not Castillan, nor even Spaniard. They are Portuguese people, the Galicians. They voted for PP because they have strong traditions and that, despite they have their (our) own culture and want to be independent, the only nationalist party there is a non violent ETA, with an extreme left orientation. So the people voted PP. Galiza can not be independent on his own.
4)The Northeastern red areas (PSOE) are the areas of the Catalan people. It was an independent kingdom with its own people, culture and History up until 1492. They do not like Spain, they want their country.
5)Then we have the Basques in the Central North red area.
6)In the Southeast, it is the land the moors occupied, Andalucia and Extremadura. They are not muslims, nor do they descent from muslims, but of course their heads can not think properly today because of that. The muslim legacy presist even today, you know, when a people live for more than half a millenium literally as dihmis, it will left some impact troughout the future. Only Almería on the Southeast escapes the red area of Andalucia.
7)In the Northwest, the Northernmost red area is Asturias. And I would love to know I Asturias, being so to the North, votes constantly more to the left than the others Northern Spaniards.
8) We have that same problem North/South in Portugal. The four Southern provinces are leftist: Beja, Évora, Portalegre, Setúbal; The Southernmost, Algarve, seems to have been more efectively colonised and is not all that leftist.
The North of Portugal is clearly right wing and the centre decides who will win. Of course, the cities are more to the left, though. Maybe because of the immigrant and the "guy living dependent on the wellfare state" votes.
"At this stage, the break-up of Spain would be good news for all."
Finaly, you do agree!!!
And it would be best for the Castillans like you! Now, you can not elect your own politicians. The other Nations of Spain have the power. Think about it! Give the independence to the Basques, create a big Catalan State, and give Galiza to Portugal! After that, you can elct the leaders on your own. The thing is: Spain (Castilla) choose Rajoy but the colnised peoples have chosen Zapatero. You can not rule your country. It is sad. Death to Spain! Long live the European Hispanic PeopleS, all them free!
"the only way out I can envisage consists of the surge of the UPyD, a moderate left party,"
Well, that party is not a "moderate left party", it is an extreme left party, and no, it does not care about an European Spain. The party is in the "centre" but, what does it mean?
It means that the only ideology of that party is to be apolitical, to not stand for something or somebody. It is leftist to an extreme. Ex: Every one is equal don't matter what; We love humanity not Spain.
It is no good man! I can not see how you were fooled by Savater.
And let's hope benfica wins over Getafe. Good words to Camach from here, now that his father passed away and he left one of the greatest of Europe.
It's probably useless trying to learn the centuries' old history of claims to Spain or even contemporary politics.
Bottom line, there appears to be absolutely no hope that Spain will resist the coming of a second Andalusia which was a project dear to bin Laden's heart. It is a dhimmi country with a plummeting birth rate below replacement level and no anti-immigration sentiment whatsoever so it will be one of the first joiners of the world wide caliphate. A 75% voter turnout shows active determination to go over the leftist cliff like lemmings.
Actually, it's a bit of a horse race to guess which European state goes first. They're all very competitive on who can be the most dhimmi the quickest with the sole and perhaps soon to be tragically isolated Denmark. Too bad it can't break off and row over the Atlantic.
"It is a dhimmi country"
"and no anti-immigration sentiment whatsoever "
Well, I don´t thnink that the Spaniards or the Iberians or the European Hipanics are dihmis. I think that the centuries war against the moors, which made this Peninsula, one of the most backward places in Europe, has prooved how not dihmi they/we are.
Concerning the non exitence of an anti immigration sentiment, it is bullshit. Actually, the vast majority of Spaniards are indeed against immigration, even "racists" in the american sense. What is wrong is that there are no anti-immigration political forces despite that PP or the Nationalists can be regarded as such.
The problem is not the moors, the problem is this Euroean leftist blood that runs trought the veins of "this" Europe.
Afonso makes a good point about regional "nationalisms" in Europe. They have consistently shown as support for the leftist parties regardless of the real political breakdown in those regions.
I'm all for the breakup of the UK now because of that. Then a reconstitution on the grounds of shared history in a new, federated form.
This map looks lot like Spain in 1936; There's the One blue province in NE of country, close to French border I wonder why the Navarre although being ethnicly Basque are voting for Castilan right; Are they still Carlist?
My apologies for not paying attention before to your comments.
Lugundum, UpyD is a moderate left. The bad news is that it is left; the good news is that it is moderate. The text is rather confusing. I find only generic statements; I do not see any specific mention to the problem of massive immigration, which should be addresses ASAP in Spain. In any case, they have got one seat and the will moderate the PSOE. I hope they will grow and put pressure on the socialists.
Afonso, Yes, Valencia was colonised by Castilians! And Galicians are Portuguese! Yes, you have the same sense of history as our secessionists.
Laine, let us say 60%. Do not mix the PP politicians with its voters. But all in all, I agree that the situation is very sad.
Nikolai, I am also for the break up of Spain. We could send all the Moroccans to Catalonia.
Ultra, Good point. Still the nig change is that Valencia and Murcia (Mediterranean cost is true blue right. Navarra is not ethnically Basque, only some 40% of the province is “Basque”. Considering the PP “Castilian” right is outrageous. The Carlists changed by the end of XIX C. into secessionists.
Thank you for the interest.
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